Paul B. Stares, an expert in conflict prevention and foreign policy, provides insights into the urgent findings of the 2025 Preventive Priorities Survey. He discusses rising geopolitical threats, including tensions in Gaza, Ukraine, and the South China Sea. Stares highlights overlooked global conflicts and humanitarian crises in Sudan and Ethiopia, urging for increased intervention. He also examines the complexities of U.S. foreign policy and its challenges in navigating peace amid seemingly contradictory actions.
The 2025 Preventive Priorities Survey highlights an alarming rise in global tensions, with five high-impact conflicts expected to challenge U.S. interests.
A significant shift in migration perceptions indicates that tougher U.S. policies may exacerbate crises rather than alleviate problems in migrants' home countries.
Deep dives
Increased Global Anxiety
The Preventive Priority Survey highlights rising global anxiety concerning U.S. foreign policy scenarios expected in 2025. This year marks an unprecedented number of tier one concerns, with five classified as high likelihood and high impact. Key issues include the deterioration of conditions in Gaza, escalating conflict in the West Bank, heightened violence in Ukraine, the shadow war between Israel and Iran, and increased U.S. military presence at the Mexican border. The growing number of pressing scenarios reflects an overwhelming sense of urgency among experts regarding potential threats to U.S. interests.
Shift in Migration Concerns
The survey reveals a notable change in perceptions around migration, particularly from Central America and Mexico. The expectation now is that a tougher U.S. stance on migration will lead to crises, shifting focus from conditions in migrants' home countries. The change suggests that the response to migration will now become a flashpoint, intensifying reactions rather than alleviating them. This marks a significant evolution in how experts view the relationship between U.S. policies and migration patterns.
Emerging Conflicts Deserving Attention
Among the less-publicized yet critical conflicts, the survey identifies ongoing violence in Sudan and issues in the Horn of Africa as significant areas of concern. The crisis in Sudan has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths and remains largely overlooked in U.S. discourse. Additionally, instability in Pakistan and Afghanistan, as well as persistent humanitarian crises in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Myanmar, require more U.S. attention. The lack of focus on these conflicts indicates a need for greater awareness and engagement to address deteriorating situations.
Paul B. Stares, General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations, joins the podcast to discuss the results of CFR’s 2025 Preventive Priorities Survey, which predicts more serious and more likely conflict contingencies than any other survey in its 17-year history.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode