The TreppWire Podcast: A Commercial Real Estate Show 349. Economic Resilience vs. Headlines: Tale of Two Consumers, Record Office CMBS Delinquency, & Multifamily & Office Inflection Point?
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Aug 29, 2025 The podcast explores a split consumer market, with value retailers thriving while high-ticket item sellers and restaurants face challenges. It discusses rising CMBS delinquency rates in office and multifamily sectors amid resilient GDP growth. Listeners learn about significant transactions, including Starwood's $500 million industrial deal and multifamily financing trends. The hosts also delve into notable office property sales and unique proposals like office-to-hotel conversions, providing insights into the evolving commercial real estate landscape.
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Bifurcated Consumer Behavior
- Retail earnings reveal a bifurcated consumer: value and essentials outperform while discretionary and dining lag.
- Winners like Five Below and Walmart raised guidance showing selective consumer resilience.
Confidence Diverges From Spending
- Consumer confidence dipped but GDP grew 3.3% in Q2, driven by consumer spending.
- This divergence suggests sentiment headlines understate actual spending activity.
Delinquency Trends Show Sector Breadth
- TREPP's CMBS delinquency rose for the sixth month to 7.29% with sizable new delinquencies and cures.
- Multifamily and office drove increases while retail delinquencies fell.