Ernest Scheyder, author of "The War Below" and senior correspondent at Reuters, dives into the tumultuous world of lithium. He explains why the majority of lithium now comes from hard rock sources rather than salt brines. The conversation covers the dramatic price swings of lithium—with skyrocketing values in 2022 followed by a crash—and how this affects the EV market. Scheyder also discusses Chile's nationalization efforts and the challenges surrounding direct lithium extraction technologies, highlighting the geopolitical influences shaping the industry's future.
The volatility in lithium prices is driven by oversupply and fluctuating demand, heavily influenced by interconnected geopolitical and market dynamics.
The difference in lithium extraction methods highlights the dominance of hard rock mining over brine, reflecting varied supply chain strategies for battery producers.
Deep dives
Global Demand for Lithium
Lithium is essential for the global economy, primarily due to its significant role in battery production for electric vehicles and other electronic devices. The two main sources of lithium are brine, typically extracted from large evaporation ponds in regions like the Atacama Desert in Chile, and hard rock mining, predominantly found in Australia. The rising demand for lithium from major manufacturers such as Tesla and Volkswagen has led to competition for new extraction methods and sources. The rapid growth trajectory of lithium demand is creating a volatile market influenced by geopolitical factors and technological advancements.
Production Methods and Their Implications
The production of lithium occurs mainly through two methods: brine extraction and hard rock mining, with hard rock currently dominating global production. The operational speed and efficiency of extracting lithium from hard rock are higher compared to the brine method, which can take months due to evaporation processes. For example, lithium carbonate is more easily derived from brine, while lithium hydroxide, which is in higher demand for certain battery types, is more efficiently produced from hard rock sources. Understanding these production differences is crucial for companies aiming to optimize their supply chains and meet the diverse needs of battery manufacturers.
Market Dynamics and Pricing Fluctuations
Lithium pricing has experienced significant volatility, spiking dramatically around 2021 and subsequently facing a downturn due to a supply glut. The demand for lithium surged as the electric vehicle market expanded, but increased production capabilities from various sources, including those in China, challenged this demand. Complications arise due to the complex nature of lithium pricing, which varies significantly based on the type of lithium product and its source, contrasting with the simpler pricing structures seen in other commodity markets. This complexity is further amplified by geopolitical factors, including global competition and market behavior among major players.
Geopolitical Influences on the Lithium Market
Geopolitical events, particularly in Chile and China, have critical implications for the global lithium landscape. In Chile, government plans to nationalize lithium production could reshape industry dynamics, promoting partnerships between state-owned companies and private enterprises while introducing novel extraction technologies. Meanwhile, China's dominance in lithium processing and refining underscores the importance of refining capacity in determining market stability and pricing. As nations vie for energy independence and advance their electric vehicle sectors, the interplay between geopolitical strategies and lithium production will continue to influence market conditions and opportunities.
If you’ve followed global lithium prices over the past few years, you know what a wild ride it’s been. Chinese spot prices shot to record highs in 2022 and then came crashing back down by 2024 — with big consequences for batteries and EVs that depend on the mineral.
So what happened? And what could happen next, especially as EV sales have been slower than expected?
In this episode, Shayle talks to Ernest Scheyder, author of “The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives” and senior correspondent at Reuters. They walk through the basics of lithium production and the recent timeline of key events affecting the industry, covering topics like:
Why more of the world’s lithium comes from hard rock spodumene than salt brines
How lithium is not one commodity at one price, but actually a variety of forms of the mineral at different prices
Lithium’s shift from a niche industry serving nuclear and pharmaceutical supply chains to a global force supplying the battery transition
The current oversupply, driven by Chinese producers that operate at a loss, and the western companies that are trying to challenge them
Chile’s efforts to nationalize its lithium industry and shift to direct lithium extraction, which has not worked at commercial scale
Recommended resources
Simon & Schuster: The War Below: Lithium, Copper, and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives
Latitude Media: Are things about to turn around for the U.S. battery sector?
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