The Best Ever CRE Show JF 4105: Slowing Hiring, Capital Costs and the Hidden Advantages for Today’s Investors with John Chang
Nov 30, 2025
John Chang, a seasoned commercial real estate researcher from Marcus & Millichap, discusses the fallout from the DOJ's RealPage settlement and its impact on data accuracy, crucial for investor decisions. He explores the influence of political uncertainty on hiring rather than capital costs and predicts slower household formation and apartment absorption by 2026. Highlighting current market dynamics, Chang urges investors to seize opportunities with positive leverage, suggesting that upcoming pent-up demand will reward those who act before the market shifts.
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Precise Rent Data Vanished
- RealPage's DOJ settlement removed access to precise rent and vacancy feeds used by analysts and operators.
- We now rely on weaker proxies like scraped asking rents, which reduces data accuracy and market efficiency.
Compensate With Analyst Judgment
- Embrace experienced analysts who add contextual judgment when automated data weakens.
- Rely on human vetting and multiple sources to compensate for less accurate machine feeds.
Fed Cut Odds Fluctuate Wildly
- Market probability of a December Fed cut swung wildly through September-November.
- Short-term rate moves are volatile and driven by shifting market expectations, not steady signals.