Rational Security: The "Middle East War to End Middle East Wars" Edition

Jun 18, 2025

Guest

Dana Stuster

Guest

Daniel Byman

Guest

Tyler McBrien

Join Tyler McBrien, Daniel Byman, and Dana Stuster as they dissect the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, sparked by Israel’s military strikes on Iran's nuclear program. They discuss Netanyahu's shocking actions and the implications for his government and U.S.-Israel relations. The conversation dives into the potential for regime change in Iran and its complex governance, and they reflect on the broader geopolitical consequences of these military actions. Insights into military strategies and shifting alliances provide a gripping overview of this tense situation.

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INSIGHT

Israel's Military Strikes and Iran's Response

Israel's strikes on Iran's nuclear sites started with Natanz but avoided heavily fortified Fordow.
Iran's responses are limited by weakened regional proxies and substantial Israeli-U.S. missile defenses.

INSIGHT

Assessing the Strike's Scale and Regional Fallout

Israel's strikes hit roughly half of Iran's nuclear sites but Fordow remains intact.
The conflict hasn't spread regionally yet, and U.S. involvement remains limited and uncertain.

INSIGHT

Regional Responses to Israel-Iran Conflict

Most Arab states publicly condemn Israel's strikes though this may be formal.
Gulf states have cooled tensions with Iran recently, shifting regional security dynamics.

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This week, Scott sat down with Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien and Foreign Policy Editors Daniel Byman and Dana Stuster to talk through the week’s big news in Israel and Iran, including:

“The Nuclear Option.” Israel crossed the rubicon late last week and took direct military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons program, among other targets, in an aggressive unilateral military campaign that has only expanded in the ensuing days. Iran, meanwhile, has reciprocated with volleys of attacks against Israel, some of which are getting through the substantial missile defenses Israel (and the United States) have deployed. It’s the Middle East war everyone has feared for more than a decade. How will it come to an end? And what will its ramifications be for the region?
“Bibi Got Back.” Israel has threatened to take direct military action against Iran over its nuclear program multiple times over the past two decades but has always stopped short. Why did Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proceed this time? And what will the implications be for his government, which has been teetering on the edge of collapse? And for his relationship with President Trump, his once close ally who declined to back his decision to proceed?
“Bye-Atollah.” While Israel’s official target has been Iran’s nuclear and military complexes, many observers suspect that their real goal is something else: regime change. And recent reports that Netanyahu proposed killing Iranian political and spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini—but relented after objections from the Trump administration—suggest they may be right. What might Iran look like if its current regime collapses? And will it help or hurt Israeli (and U.S.) security interests?

In Object Lessons, Tyler sang the praises of online radio station NTS.Live and NTS Guides to all of your quirky and eclectic musical tastes. Scott didn’t miss a beat with his throwback recommendation of Schoolhouse Rock song covers, with a particular fondness for Pavement’s rendition of No More Kings. And Dana shared his appreciation for analysis that takes Israel’s and Iran’s strategic calculus seriously.

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