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Resolve Riffs Investment Podcast

Bob Elliott on the Next Big Macro Move – It Will Surprise You!

Sep 28, 2023
Prominent figure in the financial industry, Bob Elliott, joins the ReSolve team to discuss monetary policy, inflation, and the role of central banks. They explore topics like the impact of monetary policy on inflation, the risks of long-term elevated inflation, income growth in the current economic cycle, balanced alphas in investment strategies, and the potential of alpha indexing tools. The podcast also covers the ideal weighting of equities, bonds, commodities, and alpha in an investment portfolio, as well as the concept of a diversified portfolio. Valuable insights for anyone interested in understanding the current economic landscape.
01:43:08

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The mispricing of bonds is driven by a low term premium, affecting the pricing of financial assets across the curve.
  • Higher interest rates primarily impact the repricing of credit and have a negative impact on growth.

Deep dives

Mispricing of Treasury term structure

The US Treasury term structure is mispriced by about 100 basis points, with shorter-term yields undervalued by 30-50 basis points and longer-term yields also undervalued. This mispricing is driven by a low term premium, which affects the pricing of financial assets across the curve. There is a lack of buyers for bonds, as the Fed, foreign central banks, and long-duration investors are already holding significant amounts. The timing and leverage in the economy are also important factors, as higher rates take time to impact the economy and heavily indebted entities are more vulnerable to rate increases.

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