In this engaging discussion, Matthew Saville, Director of Military Sciences at RUSI, provides key insights into Ukraine's current military landscape. He highlights the heavy toll on Russian forces despite minor advances and the strategic significance of areas like Pokrovsk. A Ukrainian soldier shares his experiences of life on the frontlines, emphasizing the impact of drone technology in modern warfare. The conversation also touches on the importance of international support and the resource potential that could shape future dynamics in the conflict.
The conflict continues with Russian forces holding 20% of Ukraine, facing heavy casualties while struggling to advance in key areas like Donbass.
Civilians in frontline regions endure severe hardships due to destroyed infrastructure and basic necessity shortages, compounded by ongoing military operations.
Deep dives
Current Frontline Dynamics
The front line of the conflict extends over 1,200 kilometers, with Russian forces currently holding about 20% of Ukrainian territory. Despite heavy casualties, Russian advancements remain slow and costly, with reports indicating approximately 800,000 casualties among their ranks. The most significant activity has been concentrated around the Donbass area, particularly around the city of Pokrovsk, where Russians are attempting to encircle the town, which still resists falling despite difficult conditions for civilians. The situation is marked by the dilemma facing Ukraine of whether to continue defending increasingly depopulated towns or to pull back for more strategic defensive lines.
Humanitarian Impact and Civilian Conditions
Civilians in frontline areas like Pokrovsk are facing dire conditions due to lack of basic necessities such as water, gas, and electricity, which are further exacerbated by extreme winter temperatures. With Russian forces targeting evacuation routes and civilian vehicles using drones, many residents are trapped in an increasingly dangerous environment. The civilian population continues to dwindle as ongoing battles destroy infrastructure and homes, raising questions about the viability of holding certain territories. This humanitarian crisis is further complicated by the strategic importance of these locations for military logistics, leading to tough decisions for Ukrainian officials.
Technological Advancements in Warfare
Modern warfare in Ukraine heavily utilizes drones, with battlefield adaptations reshaping military strategies and operations. Ukrainian soldiers are employing modified commercial drones to deliver payloads and support infantry operations, showcasing the adjustment to technological warfare amid troop shortages. Reports indicate significant shifts in drone strategies, with soldiers now able to use their drones for multiple days, suggesting successful countermeasures against Russian electronic warfare tactics. However, the ongoing reliance on drones also raises financial concerns, as the volume of drone operations—which can be quite costly—continues to grow amidst calls for increased troop support.
‘I'd love to hear more about what's actually happening in the war now. Where are the lines stable, where is Russia still advancing, where have the Russians slowed?’ That’s a message we got from one of our listeners earlier in the week, and we thought we’d answer these questions and more.
We get a sense of what’s happening along the frontline in Ukraine right now with Matthew Savill, director of military sciences at RUSI, and we hear from a soldier whose day job is to drop bombs on Russians using drones.
Today’s episode is presented by Jamie Coomarasamy and Vitaly Shevchenko.
The producers were Ben Carter and Ryan Johnston. The technical producer was Gareth Jones. The series producer is Tim Walklate. The assistant editor is Ben Mundy.
Email Ukrainecast@bbc.co.uk with your questions and comments. You can also send us a message or voice note via WhatsApp, Signal or Telegram to +44 330 1239480
You can join the Ukrainecast discussion on Newscast’s Discord server here: tinyurl.com/ukrainecastdiscord
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