China's latest stimulus package: is it enough to save the economy?
Oct 23, 2024
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Alicia García-Herrero, a senior fellow at Bruegel specializing in the Chinese economy, and Alfred Schipke, a professor at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, dive into China's new stimulus package. They unravel its design as a rescue for the ailing economy, particularly its focus on real estate and local government debt. García-Herrero likens it to a cleanup effort, while Schipke points out the lack of direct support for households. They argue for necessary structural reforms to bolster long-term recovery amidst these economic maneuvers.
China's latest stimulus package is more of a rescue effort focused on immediate financial stability rather than long-term growth.
The absence of direct household support in the stimulus highlights a significant gap, emphasizing the need for structural economic reforms.
Deep dives
China's Economic Stimulus Measures
China recently announced a significant economic stimulus package to address weak economic data and restore confidence. The government reacted to declining demand and deflationary pressures, which indicated a potential downward spiral akin to past economic challenges in Japan. Key components of the package include monetary and fiscal policies aimed at instilling confidence through aggressive counter-cyclical measures while also assisting local governments facing financial struggles. The package marks a shift from traditional conservative fiscal policies, with a focus on larger state-sponsored financial endeavors to stabilize the economy.
The Nature of the Stimulus Package
The stimulus package is being characterized as more of a rescue effort rather than straightforward fiscal stimulus, reflecting an urgent need to address current economic challenges rather than to ignite growth through consumer spending. Experts suggest that the package primarily aims to mitigate immediate risks to financial stability, particularly for local governments burdened by hidden debts and the real estate sector's malaise. Various measures included recapitalizing large state-owned banks and supporting local governments to clear debts, indicating a cautious approach to cleaning up financial instability. Comparisons to past stimulus efforts highlight that this approach is nuanced and acknowledges the complex nature of China’s current economic landscape.
Impact on the Real Estate Sector
The real estate sector is emphasized as a critical driver of China's economy, contributing significantly to GDP and household wealth. The government is taking measures to address issues such as unsold properties and local government debts associated with real estate, including plans to buy back completed and unsold units for social housing. However, the challenges due to the sector's overhang may require additional support in the future. Analysts highlight that a recovery in this segment is crucial, as declining prices have substantial implications for consumer confidence and spending.
Long-term Concerns and Structural Reforms
While the stimulus measures provide immediate relief, there are considerable concerns regarding their long-term sustainability and effectiveness in driving structural reform. Experts caution that without significant changes to the growth model, relying on debt-driven investments will limit future economic advancements. The historical pattern of postponing necessary structural adjustments in favor of short-term solutions is raised as a fundamental challenge facing policymakers. Thus, the need for comprehensive reforms alongside stimulus efforts will be critical in transitioning toward a sustainable, consumption-driven economy.
In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Yuyun Zhan invites Alicia García-Herrero and Alfred Schipke to explore the stimulus package China announced in late September 2024. They discuss why the Chinese government introduced these new measures, the key components of the package, especially how it addresses the real estate crisis and local government debt issues. Garcia Herrero notes that the stimulus is increasingly resembling a rescue package, likening it to a cleanup exercise for the economy. Schipke highlights the absence of direct support for households as a gap in the current package. Finally, they discuss the need for structural reform in China’s economy.
This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!
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