The podcast dives into the intriguing rebound in manufacturing and questions if it's genuine or merely a result of temporary factors like tariffs. Experts analyze a challenging macro environment, suggesting a bleak outlook for September and its impact on oil-producing nations. There's a focus on market value gaps, sector performance, and OPEC's shifting influence in oil trading. The conversation highlights the complexities of investing in a low-growth landscape while navigating fluctuating economic indicators.
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Quick takeaways
The manufacturing rebound observed in early 2024 may be misleading, driven by temporary factors such as China tariffs rather than genuine economic strength.
The anticipated September market dynamics suggest a long position on the US dollar, as historical trends indicate potential underperformance in gold, silver, and equities.
Deep dives
Token 2049: A Major Crypto Event
The upcoming Token 2049 event in Singapore is set to attract over 20,000 attendees and features leading figures in the cryptocurrency space, including Balaji Srinivasan and Anatoli from Solana. Scheduled for September 18th and 19th, this event will transform Singapore into a crypto hub with more than 500 associated activities across the week. The significance of this event is magnified by its coincidence with the Formula 1 Grand Prix weekend, which is sure to draw additional attention. Discounted tickets are available, highlighting the event’s accessibility for enthusiasts and professionals alike.
Investment Strategies for September
A long-only investment strategy that generally performs well in September is to be long on the US dollar, especially with historical seasonality trends suggesting underperformance in gold, silver, and equities. The dollar index has consistently shown strength against major G10 currencies during this month, making it a reliable choice for investors. This suggests investors should pay close attention to market dynamics and consider shifting their positions accordingly as September approaches. The focus on dollar strength highlights the current economic climate's influence on investment strategies.
The Current State of the Business Cycle
Recent discussions highlight a perceived 'head fake' in the business cycle, suggesting the economy may not be as strong as earlier indicators implied. The anticipated turnaround in economic momentum appears to be hindered by various factors, including geopolitical tensions and shifts in the market caused by tariffs on Chinese imports. Analysts note that traditional indicators like the ISM manufacturing index have not successfully predicted economic trends since 2021, raising concerns about the reliability of such metrics moving forward. The prognosis for growth, liquidity, and inflation remains pessimistic, indicating a potential low-growth environment ahead.
We take a closer look at the manufacturing rebound in the first half of 2024. Was is a real rebound or driven by temporary, "fake" circumstances like the China tarriffs?
We also dive into our current macro regime which suggests a bleak september. That could also be the case for the oil producing countries, which we take a closer look at this week too.
Check out the episode on youtube to see the videos & memes we look at.