Daniel Davis Deep Dive Prof John Mearsheimer: Element of DESPERATION for PUTIN
Jan 29, 2026
Prof John Mearsheimer, University of Chicago political scientist known for realist analysis of war and great power politics. He dissects Russia’s demands, explains why diplomacy is often PR while battles decide outcomes, and warns of Putin’s growing desperation and possible escalation. The conversation then shifts to Iran, limits of strikes and regime-change prospects, and regional risks of retaliation.
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Peace Claims Versus Russian Red Lines
- John Mearsheimer says Western claims of being “90%” to a peace deal are propaganda and not grounded in Russian positions.
- He argues the core impasse is Russia rejecting U.S. security guarantees rather than just territorial concessions.
Two Very Different Security Guarantees
- Mearsheimer distinguishes between a U.S.-Ukraine bilateral guarantee and a ‘common’ guarantee involving Russia with veto power.
- He asserts Russia will never accept an American security guarantee that excludes Russian involvement.
Diplomacy As Kabuki Theater
- Mearsheimer calls diplomacy here largely kabuki theater serving public relations, not substantive negotiation.
- He predicts any real settlement will be an armistice produced by battlefield events, not pre-emptive diplomacy.