Logan Mohtashami on tariffs, mortgage rates and multifamily delinquencies
Apr 2, 2025
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Logan Mohtashami, a Lead Analyst renowned for his deep understanding of mortgage trends and economic data, joins to dissect current housing market dynamics. He debunks mortgage misinformation regarding multifamily delinquencies, highlighting critical data analysis. The conversation shifts to the impact of rising interest rates on apartment delinquencies and potential economic fallout. Additionally, they explore the implications of tariffs and softer economic indicators on mortgage rates, emphasizing the need for informed decision-making in today's uncertain market.
The podcast debunks the misleading interpretation of multifamily delinquency data, highlighting the current stability of single-family delinquency rates at record lows.
The discussion on impending tariff decisions reveals concerns over their potential impact on mortgage rates and the overall economic stability.
Deep dives
Misleading Multifamily Delinquency Data
A significant topic discussed is the misleading nature of a viral multifamily delinquency chart shared on social media. This chart incorrectly suggested that millions of people were behind on their mortgages, stirring panic reminiscent of the 2008 housing crisis. The analysis highlighted that much of the data misrepresented the current delinquency rates in the single-family housing sector, which are actually at record lows due to the stability of loans backed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. The conversation emphasized the importance of accountability and clarity in data representation within the economic landscape to combat disinformation.
Economic Indicators and Mortgage Trends
The analysis of recent economic indicators reflects a nuanced outlook on mortgage rates. Despite some negative indicators affecting the 10-year yield, such as declining new orders in the ISM data, there remains a cautious optimism regarding mortgage rates trending lower, which could positively impact housing demand. The conversation pointed out that contrary to predictions of a steep increase in delinquencies, the actual data suggested a more stable housing market with an increase in inventory and moderate price growth. This balance is crucial as it indicates a maturing market that could prevent a repeat of past crises.
Impact of Tariffs on Financial Markets
The discussion around impending tariff decisions highlighted the uncertainty faced by financial markets, particularly regarding mortgage rates and consumer spending. Experts conveyed concern that aggressive tariff measures could disrupt economic stability, complicating the already delicate balance of growth and inflation. The potential for increased tariffs and how these may influence the Federal Reserve's actions were analyzed, as erratic decisions in such a chaotic environment can have far-reaching consequences. The need for strategic, well-considered responses was emphasized to maintain a healthy economic trajectory amidst external pressures.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about tariffs, mortgage rates, and the difference between single-family and multifamily delinquency data.
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.