Excess Returns The Most Misunderstood Bull Market Ever | Jim Paulsen
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Nov 27, 2024 Jim Paulsen, a veteran investment strategist and author of Paulson Perspectives, dives into the current market and economic landscape. He discusses how traditional recession indicators are failing us and why consumer confidence is surprisingly low. Paulsen emphasizes the Fed's unique actions and the evolving nature of market valuations, particularly due to technological advancements. His insights extend to the importance of Main Street sentiment, suggesting that everyday economic policies might hold more weight than major Federal decisions.
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Information Access Then and Now
- In the past, investors relied on limited information sources like annual reports and Wall Street research.
- Paulsen recalls getting only daily Dow Jones updates, highlighting the stark contrast with today's information overload.
Backward Fed Policy
- The current Fed has eased during rising inflation and tightened during falling inflation, contrary to historical patterns.
- This unusual approach has implications for the market cycle.
Unusual Market Cycle
- This market cycle has defied traditional recession indicators like the yield curve and leading economic indicators.
- These indicators have failed to predict a recession, leaving analysts without reliable tools.