Matt Pottinger Sounds the Alarm in Asia | Secrets of Statecraft | Andrew Roberts | Hoover Institution
Feb 3, 2024
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Former Deputy National Security Adviser and China expert Matt Pottinger discusses China's shift towards authoritarianism, the lab leak theory of COVID-19, Taiwan's defense strategies, US deterrence, UK's challenges with China, and the implications of the Tiananmen Massacre counterfactuals.
China's economic growth post WTO entry reinforced government power, not weakened it.
Expectations of political democratization in China post WTO were misguided due to Xi Jinping's leadership focus on authoritarianism.
A hypothetical China-Taiwan conflict could trigger a global financial crisis comparable to a blend of the COVID pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis.
Deep dives
Overview of US-China Relations
US-China relations have faced significant challenges since 2017, leading to a reassessment of previous assumptions about China's path towards liberalization. Expectations of economic growth translating into political democratization have not materialized, with China's shift towards a more authoritarian and totalitarian system under Xi Jinping. The entry of China into the World Trade Organization in 2001 did not result in further liberalization as expected, but instead saw significant economic growth that strengthened the Chinese Communist Party's power.
Implications of China's Economic Growth
China's remarkable economic growth post its entry into the World Trade Organization resulted in a tenfold increase in its economy within a few decades. Contrary to the anticipation that economic development would lead to demands for democracy, China's economy's expansion did not weaken the government but rather reinforced its power. This growth highlighted a miscalculation by the West in expecting increased liberalization post WTO entry.
Historical Analysis on China's Political Evolution
Expectations surrounding China's political transformation were shaped by observations of its economic liberalization in the late '90s. The hopefulness during this period, characterized by increased urbanization, travel abroad, and business ventures, led to the belief that China would follow a similar path to post-Soviet Russia towards liberal democracy. However, Xi Jinping's leadership marked a departure, with a deliberate emphasis on maintaining Lenin and Stalin's legacies.
Potential Impact of China Invading Taiwan
A hypothetical scenario of China invading Taiwan or imposing a blockade would have severe global repercussions, particularly in disrupting the trade of advanced semiconductors, of which Taiwan is a major producer. The blockade, affecting semiconductor manufacturing reliant on substantial electricity usage, could trigger a global financial crisis akin to a blend of the COVID pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis.
Strategic Response to China's Actions
Strategically, efforts to deter China's aggressive ambitions would involve strengthening defense capabilities, particularly in the realm of missile technology and naval preparedness. Emphasizing the importance of defense preparedness in deterring conflict, the need for a strong defense industrial base to counter potential threats is paramount.