Bitcoin's Price Dropped After Iran's Attack on Israel. Is ‘Uptober’ Canceled? - Ep. 713
Oct 4, 2024
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André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise, shares his insights into Bitcoin's price behavior amidst geopolitical turbulence. He discusses how Bitcoin has historically reacted to crises and offers a perspective on current market dynamics, suggesting it may present a buying opportunity. The conversation shifts to Bitcoin's role as a potential safe haven compared to gold and how recent ETF trends are reshaping the market. André also forecasts the implications of the upcoming U.S. elections on cryptocurrency prices, adding layers to the ongoing narrative.
Geopolitical tensions have historically led to Bitcoin sell-offs, indicating its evolving perception as a safe haven asset amidst uncertainties.
The ongoing U.S. presidential election could significantly influence Bitcoin's price, especially with potential pro-crypto policies connected to candidate success.
Deep dives
Geopolitical Events and Bitcoin Performance
Recent geopolitical events, such as missile attacks in the Middle East, have historically led to short-term impacts on Bitcoin prices. Following the escalation of tensions, there was an observable sell-off in Bitcoin, surprising many who anticipated a rise as a safe haven asset. This sell-off reflects increased uncertainty and can clear the way for potential buying opportunities, as the majority of weak hands tend to exit the market during such times. Historical analysis shows that after a short dip, Bitcoin often experiences a recovery, with performance above average roughly five to ten days post-event.
Volatility and Market Behavior
Bitcoin exhibits significant realized volatility, currently at around 50% annually, compared to gold's lower range of 20 to 30%. Despite this volatility, Bitcoin's market character is evolving, showing a trend towards becoming a safer asset as realized volatility decreases over time and halving events occur. The distinction between long-term institutional investors and short-term traders suggests a more stable market landscape with diverse investment horizons. As more institutional participants enter the market, particularly with the launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the volatility associated with Bitcoin is expected to decrease further.
Bitcoin's Role as a Safe Haven Asset
While Bitcoin is not yet fully recognized as a safe haven asset similar to gold, its characteristics are gradually shifting towards those of lower-risk investments. Historical trends indicate that, following geopolitical risk events, Bitcoin can recover and outperform other assets in the medium to long term. The ongoing sentiments around Bitcoin suggest that its perception as a safe haven is strengthening, even amid current geopolitical uncertainties. As monetary policies evolve and liquidity in the market increases, Bitcoin's status may continue to improve.
Impact of the Upcoming U.S. Presidential Election
The upcoming U.S. presidential election presents an opportunity for significant price movements in Bitcoin, particularly in relation to candidate preferences. Historical correlations suggest that rising odds for certain candidates, such as Donald Trump, align with positive performance in crypto markets. Potential outcomes from the election could lead to a quick 10% increase in Bitcoin's price depending on election results, especially if pro-crypto policies are implemented. Moreover, the behavior of various cryptocurrencies, including meme coins, reflects sensitivity to political events, posting notable price changes aligned with political shifts.
October started with hopes for “Uptober”—a positive price trajectory in October—in the Bitcoin community, since, historically, Bitcoin has performed well this month. But things took a turn when geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated, raising concerns about how that could affect Bitcoin’s price this month.
In this episode, André Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise, talks about how Bitcoin typically responds to geopolitical shocks, whether this could present a buying opportunity, and how major events like the U.S. elections might shape Bitcoin’s future.
Show highlights:
How Bitcoin’s reacted to the geopolitical escalations
Why André believes this is a buying opportunity
How there was a macro capitulation after the beginning of the unwind of the Japan carry trade in August
Whether Bitcoin can truly act as a safe haven asset
How the clientele of ETFs have changed the market structure for Bitcoin
Whether ‘Uptober’ is canceled
How Andre expects Bitcoin will perform depending on the winner of the U.S. elections
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