Ukraine Russia: MORE WAR on the Way /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Col Jacques Baud

Aug 22, 2025

Col Jacques Baud, a former Swiss intelligence officer and NATO expert, shares insights on the Russia-Ukraine war and the complexities of diplomacy. He discusses Trump's surprising meeting with Putin in Alaska, highlighting the stark differences in how a ceasefire is perceived by Russia versus Europe. Baud argues that Ukraine faces a difficult choice between maintaining territory or minimizing casualties, while skepticism remains about the effectiveness of Ukraine's military strategies. The conversation reveals a significant gap between political rhetoric and the realities on the battlefield.

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INSIGHT

Anchorage Changed Western Perception

The Anchorage meeting clarified Russia's demands directly to Donald Trump and shifted his view.
Russians frame a ceasefire as one step inside a negotiated process tied to NATO and territorial concessions.

INSIGHT

Russia's Preconditions Are A Process

Russia's stated starting conditions: Ukraine abandon NATO ambitions and withdraw from four regions.
Russia treats those moves as the initiation of a process that can lead to an immediate ceasefire.

INSIGHT

Ceasefire Versus Peace: A Mindset Gap

Europeans often equate a ceasefire with peace while Russia sees ceasefire as a tactical tool inside a negotiation.
That mindset gap explains why talks repeatedly stall and why outcomes remain distant.

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Col Jacques discusses recent diplomacy around the Russia–Ukraine war, focusing on Trump’s surprise decision to meet Putin in Anchorage (Alaska) instead of immediately imposing tariffs/secondary sanctions.

The colonel’s view: the Alaska meeting gave Trump direct, one-on-one clarity about the Russian position that earlier advisers hadn’t fully transmitted.

Russia’s stated preconditions (repeated since last June) are that Ukraine must abandon NATO membership and withdraw from four contested regions — these are presented as the starting point for a process that would make a ceasefire possible.

Russia sees a ceasefire as a tool within a broader negotiated process; many Europeans, by contrast, treat a ceasefire itself as “peace.” That mindset gap is central to why talks struggle.

Trump’s meetings opened a direct line to Putin and shifted some Western leaders toward accepting that questions about NATO membership and territorial adjustments are on the table.

Zelensky and much of Europe publicly maintain territorial integrity and reject ceding land, creating a major political/legal obstacle — especially for Zelensky, whose domestic legitimacy depends on defending sovereignty.

The colonel stresses the grim tradeoff: Ukrainians must choose between prioritizing territory or prioritizing lives (avoiding further casualties), and legal/constitutional adjustments might be needed if territory is ceded.

The colonel is skeptical about grand offensive claims (e.g., new long-range missiles) — notes such rhetoric and promised counteroffensives have been made before without delivering major reversals on the ground.

Bottom line: Anchorage created direct contact and clarified Russian demands; the core disagreement is whether a ceasefire is an end (European view) or a step inside a larger process (Russian view), and that disagreement — plus Zelensky’s refusal to cede territory — makes a negotiated peace very difficult.

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