In a captivating discussion, Erica Frantz, an Assistant Professor at Michigan State University and expert on authoritarian politics, explores the potential consequences if Xi Jinping dies in office. They delve into the complexities of leadership succession in authoritarian systems, revealing how a lack of proper planning can lead to instability. Historical examples illustrate that while many regimes endure post-leader death, significant political change is rare. Frantz also examines the current dynamics in China, emphasizing the impact of centralized power on governance.
The absence of established succession protocols in authoritarian regimes often leads to instability and power struggles among elites during leadership transitions.
Historical data suggests that the death of an authoritarian leader rarely results in regime change, with over 87% remaining intact post-leadership.
Deep dives
Understanding Authoritarianism
Authoritarian systems are characterized by leaders who are not chosen through free and fair elections, with terms like dictatorship and autocracy often used interchangeably. Many common definitions exclude the complex hybrid regimes that do not fit neatly into binary classifications of democracy or dictatorship. Historically, terms like 'totalitarian' are now rarely applied, as most current authoritarian regimes do not exhibit the same characteristics as those seen in the early 20th century. Recognizing these distinctions is essential when discussing political dynamics in countries like China.
Challenges of Succession in Dictatorships
Authoritarian regimes often face significant difficulties in leadership succession, primarily due to a lack of third-party institutions that can enforce electoral rules. Dictators may pursue policies to maintain their power indefinitely, contrary to the interests of regime elites who prefer stability and smooth transitions. The disconnect between a leader's personal ambitions and the regime's need for continuity contributes to the complexities of power succession. As such, dictators may delay or avoid grooming successors due to the fear of instability or backlash from their peers.
The Risks of Incapacitation and Death
Leadership vacancy, whether through death or incapacitation, generally prompts fears among regime elites about potential instability. Historical examples indicate that when a leader falls ill or is absent, elites often collaborate behind the scenes to maintain the façade of stability. The risk of a power struggle or rebellion during such transitions motivates elites to present a united front. While succession can sometimes lead to factionalism, the urgent need to prevent regime collapse typically discourages significant public dissent during these vulnerable periods.
Consequences of Leader Death
Data reveals that the death of an authoritarian leader does not usually lead to significant regime change; rather, over 87% of regimes remain intact post-leadership death. The strength of the ruling party plays a crucial role in maintaining stability; stronger parties tend to facilitate smoother transitions. However, the personalization of power creates challenges for successors, often leading to a continuation of the status quo rather than substantial political reform. Historical trends indicate that while leadership transitions provide opportunities for change, they often result in the reinstatement of similar authoritarian practices.
With the removal of the only term limit on office in March 2018, Xi Jinping stands to rule indefinitely. But what happens if he suddenly dies in office? How will China's political and economic system respond? In this episode from September 2020, Jude Blanchette is joined by Michigan State University's Erica Frantz to discuss her co-authored paper, "When Dictators Die."
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode