Pekingology What Happens if Xi Jinping Dies in Office?
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Jan 16, 2025 In a captivating discussion, Erica Frantz, an Assistant Professor at Michigan State University and expert on authoritarian politics, explores the potential consequences if Xi Jinping dies in office. They delve into the complexities of leadership succession in authoritarian systems, revealing how a lack of proper planning can lead to instability. Historical examples illustrate that while many regimes endure post-leader death, significant political change is rare. Frantz also examines the current dynamics in China, emphasizing the impact of centralized power on governance.
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Succession Challenges in Authoritarian Regimes
- Authoritarian regimes struggle with succession due to a lack of independent institutions to enforce rules.
- The leader's desire to retain power often clashes with the regime's interest in stability.
Risks of Grooming Successors
- Grooming a successor can be risky for authoritarian leaders, potentially creating elite divisions or empowering rivals.
- Leaders may delay naming successors to maintain control and avoid internal challenges.
Khamenei's Succession
- After Khomeini's death, his hastily chosen successor, Khamenei, lacked religious credentials, causing instability.
- This Iranian example shows how quickly chosen successors struggle to govern effectively.