Former US President Barack Obama shares insights on the consequences of elections, focusing on their impact on financial markets. He discusses the implications of market volatility around the U.S. presidential debate and reflects on past events like Brexit. Obama emphasizes the significance of risk management strategies, particularly in derivatives. The conversation highlights how election outcomes shape market behavior, with volatility measures like the VIX being influenced by changes in supply and demand.
The podcast illustrates that employing convex insurance strategies can lead to significant payouts during market turmoil despite frequent losses.
It emphasizes the influence of upcoming U.S. elections on volatility pricing in derivatives, highlighting how reduced supply of volatility can elevate its price.
Deep dives
Risk Management and Alpha Generation
Convex insurance strategies can provide opportunities for generating alpha, even if they result in losses most of the time. The podcast emphasizes that buying insurance at the right time and price can yield significant payouts during market chaos, illustrating this with the success of investors like Bill Ackman. It discusses how traditional portfolio hedges may not work effectively, highlighting that while the long-term strategy of holding diversified portfolios like the S&P 500 can be beneficial, investors should never overlook the potential for sudden market downturns. Examples of past market failures, including high-profile cases like Lehman Brothers and LTCM, serve as reminders of the risks involved in investment strategies.
Valuing Derivatives in Risk Management
The podcast highlights the potential within derivatives to effectively manage risk through strategically constructed trades. Simple strategies, such as zero-cost collars, allow investors to protect against downside while forgoing some upside exposure, demonstrating that conditionally well-thought trades can benefit from favorable market pricing. The discussion points to historical examples, such as the pricing of options in the aftermath of the COVID market collapse, showcasing how identifying and avoiding high-volatility traps can enhance profit potential. It also emphasizes the idea that pursuing trades that the market penalizes can reveal valuable opportunities.
Election Risk and Volatility Pricing
With the upcoming U.S. elections, the dynamics of volatility in derivatives are brought to the forefront, where the risk of market outcomes influences pricing strategies significantly. The podcast outlines how low supply of volatility tends to raise its price ahead of major events, as liquidity providers often reduce exposure to potential volatility risk. Analyzing the implied volatility of options, it describes how traders might reconsider taking positions during such uncertain times, especially regarding structures like put spreads. A case is presented around the October VIX options market, suggesting that buying a specific put spread might not be favorable due to skewed pricing and elevated implied volatility.
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Navigating Risk and Volatility Ahead of Election Season
“Elections have consequences”. So said former US President Barack Obama. He probably didn’t have our trusty fear gauge, the VIX, in mind, but he may as well have. We are one day away from the US presidential debate. I am not sure this one can deliver the same fireworks that resulted from June 27th. It may devolve into a food fight, with each side hoping to land a definitive blow. What I’ve learned about election risk with regard to derivatives through events like Brexit, the 2016 and 2020 US elections and certainly this one as well is that the clearing price for volatility is impacted by a decline in the willingness and ability to supply it to the market. The result, a VIX stuck at a reasonably high level. I hope you find this discussion enjoyable and useful.
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