At Any Rate
US Rates Strategy: 2025 US Rates Outlook
Dec 4, 2024
Join Srini Ramaswamy, Head of Global Rates Derivatives Strategy at J.P. Morgan, and Teresa Ho, Head of US Short Duration Strategy, as they dissect the 2025 US fixed income landscape. They predict a mild economic slowdown with a 2% GDP growth and discuss upcoming fiscal policy changes, including treasury market responses. The duo explores the stability of money market funds amid Fed easing and delves into the intricacies of inflation and bond yields, offering insights into volatility and strategic investment positioning.
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Quick takeaways
- The U.S. economy is projected to experience a mild slowdown with GDP growth decreasing to around 2% and a slight rise in unemployment rates to 4.5%.
- Anticipated Treasury yield declines in 2025 are linked to a shallow easing cycle by the Fed, creating advantages for long-duration treasuries amid changing supply dynamics.
Deep dives
Gentle Slowdown in the U.S. Economy
The U.S. economy is expected to experience a gentle slowdown as we approach 2025, with GDP growth projected to decline to approximately 2%. Unemployment rates may rise slightly to around 4.5%, reflecting a mild uptick in labor challenges. Additionally, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is anticipated to decrease to about 2.3%. This outlook suggests that while the economy is evolving through the business cycle, it remains fundamentally stable, creating an environment conducive to modest Federal Reserve easing actions.
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