More or Less: Behind the Stats Numbers in Ukraine and low seas in Chagos
Mar 6, 2022
Discover the troop estimates in Ukraine, where figures range wildly between 100,000 and 190,000. Learn about the struggles to get accurate data on casualties during the conflict, highlighting the importance of scrutinizing these numbers. Switch gears to the Chagos Islands, where scientists question the claim of seas being 100m lower than the global average. Unpack the complexities of Earth's shape and gravitational variations that influence sea levels, and explore the limitations of current models in understanding these intriguing oceanic mysteries.
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Russian Troop Estimates
- Estimates of Russian troop numbers varied before the invasion, from 100,000 to 190,000.
- Open-source analysis and US intelligence converged on roughly 150,000, close to Russia's deployable capacity.
Occupation Force Requirements
- While 150,000 troops sounds substantial, it's likely insufficient for long-term occupation of Ukraine.
- Historical examples, like the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia, suggest much larger numbers would be needed.
Evaluating Casualty Figures
- Treat casualty figures with caution, verifying the source's reliability and potential biases.
- Consider their access to information and motivation for presenting the numbers, recognizing information as a battleground.