RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Jobs Stumble as Gold Runs
Sep 5, 2025
This discussion dives into the surprising job market trends, questioning the true growth of employment as consumer sentiment shifts dramatically. There's an urgent look at the escalating odds of a government shutdown and the political ramifications tied to it. The alignment of gold's rise with falling yields is also explored. Bitcoin's strong performance amid market volatility contrasts sharply with the broader economic signals, influencing various sectors from home building to retail. Humor and audience engagement add a unique spin to the analysis.
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Jobs Miss Signals Growing Slack
- The August payrolls print showed rising slack in the labor market with unemployment and underemployment drifting up.
- Neil Dutta says this cooling increases recession risk and widens the gap between what the Fed should do and what it likely will do.
Prepare For Smaller Fed Moves
- Consider the risk that the Fed will act more cautiously than economists think and may only move in smaller increments.
- Prepare for a slower policy response that could push growth worries into long-term rates, says Neil Dutta.
Conference Board's Bearish Flip Matters
- The Conference Board's consumer sentiment question about expected stock decreases is a strong contrarian indicator.
- Jeff DeGraff notes the recent drop to low optimism is historically bearish and worth watching for market reversals.