224. Strategies to navigate geopolitical uncertainty
Nov 7, 2024
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This podcast features Michael Birshan, a senior partner leading Strategy & Corporate Finance at McKinsey; Ziad Haider, the global director of geopolitical risk; and Olivia White, a senior partner at the McKinsey Global Institute. They discuss essential strategies for businesses facing geopolitical uncertainties. Key topics include the balance of efficiency and resilience in supply chains, the importance of stakeholder engagement, and practical approaches to decision-making in uncertain times. Their insights offer a roadmap for navigating complex global landscapes.
Businesses should develop a multi-dimensional resilience strategy that addresses both predictable and unpredictable geopolitical challenges effectively.
Adopting a systematic approach to geopolitical risk management enables companies to leverage insights and foresight for more agile decision-making.
Deep dives
Understanding Resilience in Geopolitical Contexts
Resilience manifests differently depending on the geopolitical challenges faced by companies. In scenarios involving state tensions, businesses may seek to protect specific trade lines from potential disruptions, emphasizing the need for strategic insulation. Conversely, unpredictable shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic or climate-related events, necessitate a diverse supply chain approach that fosters flexibility and adaptability. Acknowledging that resilience is multi-dimensional allows companies to develop comprehensive strategies tailored to distinct threats.
The Global Cooperation Barometer Insights
The Global Cooperation Barometer, developed in collaboration with the World Economic Forum, reveals that recent years have seen a plateau in global cooperation, particularly in areas of peace and security. Executives rank geopolitical instability as a significant risk to global economic growth, reflecting a growing concern about the impacts of instability on their operations. Over the past three years, cooperation trends have raised questions about whether they will continue on a downward trajectory. By identifying and understanding these shifts, businesses can navigate the complexities of the evolving global landscape more effectively.
Strategies for Managing Geopolitical Risks
Companies are encouraged to adopt a systematic approach to managing geopolitical risks through insight, foresight, and oversight. Insight involves developing robust channels for gathering and analyzing geopolitical information rather than relying on sporadic sources. Foresight requires companies to consider potential future scenarios that could significantly impact their operations, categorizing risks into black swans, gray rhinos, and potential opportunities. By maintaining oversight, organizations can recalibrate their global presence based on accumulated knowledge and potential risks, allowing for more agile decision-making.
Structural Segmentation as a Response to Challenges
Structural segmentation is a framework that allows companies to respond effectively to geopolitical uncertainty across six dimensions of risk. This includes reshaping supply chains, rethinking R&D strategies, and redefining the technology stack to better align with local conditions. Businesses are increasingly recognizing the need to localize certain operations while maintaining global connections, which can enhance decision-making and mitigate risks. However, implementing these strategies requires careful balancing of costs, efficiency, and the intricate dynamics of global operations within diverse regulatory environments.
This week, we discuss strategies for navigating geopolitical uncertainty with the authors of a recent article on the subject. Michael Birshan is a senior partner and co-leads our Strategy & Corporate Finance practice globally and also serves on the McKinsey Global Institute Council, Ziad Haider is a partner and our global director of geopolitical risk, and Olivia White is a senior partner and director of our business and economics research arm, the McKinsey Global Institute.