Grim Warning to America: Jobs Have Completely Stopped Hiring
Dec 23, 2024
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Steve Van Metre, an expert in economics and financial markets, warns about alarming trends in the U.S. labor market. He reveals that job finding rates have sharply declined, signaling potential recession risks. The discussion examines the grim relationship between job openings and unemployment, and how rising unemployment could impact consumer spending. Van Metre emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts amidst these challenges and highlights the disconnect in labor market expectations post-election.
The job finding rate in the U.S. experienced a significant decline, dropping from 28 percent to 21.3 percent in November, which is indicative of an economy potentially moving toward a recession. As the rate falls, it suggests that those who lose their jobs find it increasingly difficult to gain new employment, leaving them stuck and contributing to broader economic concerns. This situation raises alarms as prolonged unemployment not only affects individual households but can lead to a decrease in overall consumer spending, further straining economic activity. The connection between the job finding rate's decline and potential recession becomes more concerning when considering historical patterns associated with rising unemployment.
The Beverage Curve and Labor Market Dynamics
The beverage curve illustrates the relationship between labor demand, represented by job openings, and labor supply, reflected in the unemployment rate. Insights from this curve indicate that when the typical turnover in the labor market ceases, larger economic repercussions may ensue, potentially leading to increased layoffs. Presently, the ongoing decline in job openings suggests that the labor market's churn is diminishing, closely resembling trends observed before previous economic downturns. This lack of hiring stability contributes to a negative feedback loop whereby sustained unemployment leads to decreased consumer spending, ultimately affecting businesses dependent on that very spending for their income.
Federal Reserve's Dilemma amidst Labor Market Weakness
Amidst rising concerns about the labor market, the Federal Reserve finds itself in a precarious position, unsure of the economy's trajectory. Discrepancies in data, such as the drop in the job finding rate and the sluggish hiring rate, have prompted discussions about potential rate cuts to mitigate further economic decline. Despite signals indicating a weakening labor market, the Fed continues to be mindful of rising consumer prices, complicating their monetary policy decisions. The uncertainty leaves the Fed oscillating between inflation management and labor market support, leading to doubts about their economic outlook and future policy actions.
According to the latest conventional 'wisdom' - which changes with each and every CPI report and FOMC dot adjustment - inflation is back and so is the soft landing. The most recent update from the labor market says that's entirely backward. Job findings have utterly plunged right when the jobs market reaches that 'magical' unemployment inflection spot on this critical curve.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre