Join expert Jeffrey Lewis, a professor and director at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, as he delves into the complexities of nuclear deterrence. He discusses Putin's diminishing nuclear blackmail tactics and the implications of Russia's new nuclear doctrine for global stability. Lewis also unpacks lessons from the Ukraine conflict and critiques the recent resurgence of Iran's nuclear ambitions. Additionally, he explores U.S. nuclear needs and the growing Chinese nuclear threat, illuminating vital geopolitical dynamics.
Putin's updated nuclear doctrine illustrates his frustration and marks a dangerous escalation in response to Western military support for Ukraine.
The conversation highlights the complexities of nuclear deterrence and the evolving challenges posed by China’s growing nuclear capabilities.
Deep dives
Nuclear Escalation and West's Red Lines
The episode discusses the increasing nuclear threats posed by Putin in response to Western military support for Ukraine, particularly the approval for Ukraine to use advanced missiles like ATACAMs and Storm Shadow against Russian targets. This decision represents a significant escalation in the conflict, crossing a red line that Russia had long warned against. In retaliation, Putin updated Russia's nuclear doctrine, declaring that any expansion of military support to Ukraine from NATO would justify nuclear use. The unveiling of such a doctrine not only reflects Russian frustration over their military setbacks in Ukraine but also escalates tensions between Russia and the West.
Shifts in Nuclear Doctrine
The discussion delves into the implications of Russia’s modified nuclear doctrine, which now includes a broad scope of potential targets, extending to countries supporting aggression against Russia, such as NATO members. This marks a significant shift in Russia's nuclear strategy, raising concerns about its potential consequences. The speakers emphasize the distinction between nuclear threats and actual policy changes, suggesting that the Russian leadership's frustration is shaping its nuclear stance. The added threats of nuclear deterrents point to a signaling mechanism aimed at conveying seriousness without immediate expectations of nuclear action.
Conventional vs. Nuclear Deterrence
The episode explores the concept that nuclear weapons primarily serve as deterrents against nuclear strikes, while conventional aggression continues below the nuclear threshold. This notion posits that while nuclear deterrence functions effectively for major conflicts, sub-nuclear conflicts often occur despite the presence of nuclear arms. The speakers suggest that the reality of deterrence may be simpler than often perceived, indicating that nations can engage in conventional conflict without fearing immediate nuclear repercussions. This perspective leads to a broader understanding of the limitations of nuclear deterrence in moderating conventional confrontations among nations.
Global Nuclear Landscape and Future Strategies
The conversation touches on the concerning rise of China's nuclear capabilities and the implications for U.S. strategic planning amidst an evolving global nuclear landscape. As China's stockpile grows, the U.S. must reassess its nuclear strategy, particularly regarding its relationship and deterrent posture towards both Russia and China. The dialogue emphasizes the complexities of matching missile capabilities and the potential pitfalls of an arms race stemming from reactive military expansions. Amidst these challenges, discussions around the importance of diplomacy, especially involving North Korea's evolving stance, underscore the need for strategic dialogues to manage these multifaceted relationships.
Dmitri Alperovitch talks all things nukes with Dr. Jeffrey Lewis, an expert in arms control and nuclear and missile nonproliferation, currently a professor at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and director of the CNS East Asia Nonproliferation Program.
They discuss:
- Putin's frustrations about limitations of nuclear blackmail and his responses to the ATACMS targeting decision by the Biden Administration
- What the new Russian nuclear doctrine means for World War III prospects
- What the Ukraine conflict teaches us about nuclear deterrence theory
- Putin's real redlines
- Implications of the Oreshik (RS 26) Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile against Ukraine
- Why ballistic missile notification regime is a GoodThingTM
- The resumption of the Iranian nuclear warhead design program
- How to respond to the Chinese nuclear buildup
- How many nukes does the US need for comprehensive deterrence
Russian nuclear doctrine changes thread by Oleg Shakirov: https://x.com/shakirov2036/status/1858810939652370886
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