Inside the ICE House Market Storylines: AI Momentum Fades, Bitcoin Continues to Fall + S&P 500 Tests Support
Nov 21, 2025
This week, a fading AI narrative raises questions as the S&P 500 dips below its 50-day average. Nvidia's strong earnings initially boosted markets, only for gains to vanish under renewed selling pressure. With crypto weakness, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, sending risk-off signals, investors turn to defensive sectors like consumer staples and healthcare. Labor data suggests lower yields and reignited rate-cut hopes, while the dollar strengthens unexpectedly. All eyes are on the upcoming holiday trading schedule and economic updates.
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AI Hype Can't Mask Broader Market Weakness
- The S&P 500 broke its six-plus month streak above the 50-day moving average and is now testing the 100-day moving average as support.
- NVIDIA's blowout earnings briefly lifted AI-led gains but the subsequent selloff shows buying the dip has weakened.
Defensive Sectors Lead As Rotation Looms
- Defensive sectors like consumer staples, utilities, and real estate outperformed while tech and consumer discretionary led declines.
- Healthcare could attract rotated flows since it still lags long-term and suits both risk-averse and generalist investors.
Prepare For Options Expiration Volatility
- Watch tomorrow's options expiration for shifts in hedges and volatility positioning that can amplify moves.
- Anticipate short-term volatility around expirations when positioning is rebalanced.