Episode 86: Alliances and rivalries in a new Middle East, with Dan Schueftan

4 snips

Feb 2, 2026

Dan Schueftan, Israeli security analyst and strategist, offers sharp analysis of shifting Middle East alliances and rising Turkish influence. He discusses Saudi recalibration, the strategic stakes of Syria, and how Turkey’s regional moves could threaten Israeli interests across multiple theaters. He also stresses Israel’s surprising strategic strengths amid these transformations.

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INSIGHT

Gulf States Play Both Sides

Regional powers now play both sides, appeasing enemies while courting allies to survive local vulnerabilities.
Dan Schueftan argues Saudi behavior reflects fear of Iranian retaliation against Gulf infrastructure and a search for survival options.

ADVICE

Use US Leverage To Limit Adversary Arming

Lobby the United States to restrict advanced systems like F-35 transfers that would empower regional rivals such as Turkey or Saudi Arabia.
Use diplomatic leverage with Washington to block capabilities that threaten vital Israeli interests.

INSIGHT

Turkey's Regional Zero-Sum Drive

Turkey aims to build influence across Syria, Libya, Yemen and the eastern Mediterranean as a strategic zero-sum player versus Israel.
Schueftan warns Turkish control of Syrian territories and eastern Mediterranean influence threatens Israeli gas, Cypriot and Greek interests.

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The inimitable Prof. Dan Schueftan joins Haviv to break down a "profoundly dangerous" turn in the Middle East. With Saudi Arabia shifting away from its alliance with Israel and the Emirates and Turkey consolidating a "puppet state" in Syria, the regional map is being redrawn. Schueftan warns that the "moderate axis" has blinked, leaving Israel to face a sophisticated Turkish adversary that is ideologically rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood and strategically positioned to disrupt Israeli interests from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea.

But despite these threats, Prof. Schueftan offers a powerful and much-needed reality check: Israel has never been stronger. Jews are the only people in the region who don't seem to grasp its power. Israel is currently in its best strategic position in history -- a 21st-century military and technological power that has outlasted every previous attempt at its destruction.

This episode was sponsored by Alex Verjovsky. "I want to dedicate this episode to my wife Betty, without whom I would not be the person I am today. When we started our lives together, you believed in me when I had little more than a promise, something I spent the next thirty-something years trying to live up to. As we begin the countdown to our fortieth anniversary, it’s now your turn to enjoy the fruits of that journey. So get ready for another forty years together, exploring, learning, asking questions, and growing old side by side.

"Ask Haviv Anything has become a place of learning and discovery, and one of the few spaces left where ideas, rather than dogmas are openly discussed and we love listening to it and talking about it."

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Musical intro by Adam Ben Amitai.