The four horsemen of the next decade (financial, geopolitical, complexity, and social contract) must be considered when discussing pathways towards a post-growth future with significantly lower emissions.
Achieving significantly lower emissions and a post-growth economy requires a paradigmatic shift in society and exploring various pathways, including potential financial crises, cultural consciousness shifts, and non-systemic activism.
Deep dives
The Four Horsemen of the Next Decade: Financial, Geopolitical, Complexity, and Social Contract
The podcast episode discusses the concept of the four horsemen of the next decade: financial, geopolitical, complexity, and social contract. The financial aspect focuses on the unsustainable global debt-to-GDP ratio, which will eventually lead to a vendor break situation, resulting in a significantly smaller economy. Geopolitics examines the competition for finite resources among major powers and the potential for conflicts in the next decade. Complexity refers to the intricate global supply chain and the vulnerability it poses to disruptions, particularly if certain countries are unable or unwilling to trade essential resources. The social contract addresses the growing polarization and loss of trust in societies worldwide, which affects the ability to have productive dialogue on important issues. These four risks are interconnected and must be considered when discussing pathways towards a post-growth future with significantly lower emissions.
Possible Pathways to Post-Growth Futures
The podcast explores ten possible pathways to post-growth futures, which would lead to lower emissions. These pathways include a potential financial crisis (biophysical snapping back of the rubber band) due to excessive global debt, putting real prices on goods and services to account for true externalities, the implementation of a new economic system, a shift in cultural consciousness towards less consumption, systems-blind planning that considers only single problems without addressing the entire system, the occurrence of war as a major disruptor, a spite revolution resulting in wealth redistribution but overall reduced living standards, non-systemic activism such as carbon hunger strikes or population control initiatives, the influence of factors like superorganism chess and cascading responses, and the potential impact of black swan events. Each pathway poses different challenges and consequences, but they all have the potential to lead to a post-growth future with lower emissions.
Importance of Paradigmatic Shift for Sustainable Change
The podcast emphasizes that achieving significantly lower emissions and a post-growth economy requires a paradigmatic shift in society. Merely scaling renewables or relying on technological advancements will not be sufficient. The speaker advocates for a realistic understanding of the complexities involved in bringing about sustainable change. The episode encourages the exploration of break glass emergency plans for individuals, communities, nations, and global governance to prepare for the road closed sign ahead. The goal is to spark proactive efforts and discussions about the necessary shifts in societal structures and values before they become inevitable. The podcast concludes by emphasizing the importance of passing on this understanding and fostering a pro-social collective effort towards a better future.
In Part 3 of this Frankly Series, Nate (just after watching the movie Oppenheimer!) breaks down the logic of how we COULD arrive at a post-growth future. Our global situation is complex and not static - IF we somehow are able to shrink the global economic output (which would imply significantly less oil use) we first have to navigate ‘the 4 Horsemen of the 2020s’. Nate outlines 10 possible avenues for how this could happen, not as a prescription but as a description of various possible scenarios. The implications of the complexity of our global systems means a path to a world without our current dependence on growth will not be an easy one. Yet understanding these hurdles between our current situation and an eventual post-growth future is essential to shifting the initial conditions of such a global transformation towards ‘better-than-the-default’ outcomes. How do impending and converging risks narrow our options for ways to move towards a different global system - and can we manage to protect the things that make life worth living?