The Commentary Magazine Podcast Error Correction
20 snips
Oct 9, 2026 
Matt Continetti, an American political historian, author, and Wall Street Journal columnist, joins the discussion. They examine polling errors, shaky election forecasts, and the competitive Michigan Senate race. The conversation turns to Abdul El-Sayed’s record and political associations, the controversy surrounding Navi Pillay’s Nobel Peace Prize, and Continetti’s recommendation of a Stanley Kubrick podcast.
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Fewer Polls Can Produce Cleaner Averages
- Fewer polls may improve averages when serious firms replace low-quality surveys and partisan gamesmanship.
- Michigan’s primary polling showed how obscure firms projected Abdul El-Sayed leading by 16 to 18 points before his one-point win.
The House Looks Worse For Republicans Than The Senate
- Matt Continetti expects Democrats to take the House but sees the Senate as more uncertain.
- Pollsters struggle in red states because rural Republicans distrust surveys and increasingly reject unsolicited cellphone calls.
Tiny Response Rates Weaken Election Polls
- A New York Times survey reached only 8,000 respondents after 235,000 calls, limiting reliable demographic subgroup analysis.
- Yet consistent movement across many polls still provides evidence that Democrats are trending ahead.