Less Noise, More Signal Charles Edwards: Bitcoin's Headwinds and the Quantum Threat
Nov 20, 2025
In this engaging discussion, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments and creator of Bitcoin on-chain models, dives deep into the current state of Bitcoin and the looming threat of quantum computing. He explains why institutions have halted their BTC purchases and the health of Bitcoin Treasury Companies. Charles highlights the vulnerability of Bitcoin's cryptographic security to quantum advancements, predicting significant risks within just a few years. He also discusses solutions for quantum resistance and the potential positive applications of quantum technology.
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Institutions Drove The Recent Rally
- Institutional ETF and treasury flows drove Bitcoin's price for 18–24 months and their reversal signals weakness.
- Charles Edwards flags net institutional selling since $110K as a primary negative indicator.
Treasury Companies Show Demand Stress
- Many Bitcoin treasury companies trade at a discount to their NAV, signaling weakened demand for those equity products.
- Charles notes ~31% trade below MNAV and rising competition among ~190 treasury companies.
Miner Production Cost As A Bottom Signal
- Bitcoin's production cost (electricity) historically marks extreme buying opportunities near its level.
- Charles places electrical cost around $70K and all-in miner cost near $88K as key support zones.
