Ep 89: Mick Ryan on Ukraine, Taiwan, and Future War
Sep 12, 2023
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Mick Ryan, retired Major General in the Australian Army and author of White Sun War, discusses the war in Ukraine and the potential war in Taiwan. Topics include China's impact on Australia, Ukrainian progress, China's strategies, past wars, and Ryan's book.
Australia's perception of China has significantly shifted in recent years.
China is learning from the war in Ukraine and adapting its military and strategic thinking.
Deep dives
The Importance of Understanding the Complexity of War
The podcast discusses the evolving nature of war and emphasizes that no war ever shows the expected characteristics. It explores the need to move beyond simplistic assumptions and recognize the complexity of major power clashes, such as the War in Ukraine and the prospect of a war for Taiwan. The podcast also highlights the importance of studying history and drawing lessons from previous conflicts to inform strategic thinking and decision-making.
The Shift in Australia's Strategic Attitudes
The podcast delves into the evolution of Australia's strategic perspectives, particularly regarding China. It explores the major inflection points that have shaped Australia's view of security in the Pacific and the challenges posed by China. These inflection points include Chinese attempts to influence Australian politics, the leasing of Darwin Port, the 5G decision, and economic coercion tactics. The podcast emphasizes that Australia's perception of China has significantly shifted in recent years due to these events, leading to a decline in public opinion favoring China.
Observations on the Ukrainian Counter-Offensive
The podcast examines the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russia and presents observations on its progress. It highlights the complex dynamics of the conflict, taking into account factors such as territory retaKing, destruction of enemy forces, positioning for future offensives, and projecting success to supporters. The podcast acknowledges differing viewpoints on Ukrainian military prospects, but the guest expresses optimism regarding Ukraine's resilience, adaptability, and will to win. It emphasizes the need to consider long-term planning and maintain political and strategic patience in supporting Ukraine.
Lessons China Learns from the War in Ukraine
The podcast explores the key lessons that China may be learning from its observations of the war in Ukraine. It suggests that China is observing the cohesion of the Western alliance and learning about decision-making processes and potential deterrent effects. It also mentions China's focus on political objectives, integration of military and influence operations, logistics, strategic influence operations, and the adaptation of doctrine and training. The podcast cautions against underestimating China's warfighting capabilities and highlights the importance of considering the potential changes in China's strategic thinking based on these observations.
The Role of Fiction in Understanding Future War Scenarios
The podcast delves into the use of fiction in understanding future war scenarios and focuses on the author's novel, 'White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan.' The guest explains the motivation behind writing a novel and explores the value of using narrative to explore potential military and strategic futures. The podcast highlights the significance of understanding the military as it is and includes diverse perspectives, such as the increased role of women in the military. It concludes by discussing the reception of the novel and the importance of supporting Taiwan amidst the changing global landscape.
Mick Ryan, Major General (retired) in the Australian Army and author of White Sun War: The Campaign for Taiwan, joins the show to talk about the war today in Ukraine, the potential war in Taiwan, and the changing character of war itself.
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Times
• 02:22 Introduction
• 05:49 China on Australia’s radar
• 11:56 Ukrainian progress
• 17:26 Timeframe
• 24:00 “We’re helping them tread water. We’re not helping them swim.”
• 27:37 What is China learning from Ukraine?
• 35:20 Can China pull off its own Operation Neptune?
