Instant Genius How accurately can we predict the weather? – Andrew Blum
17 snips
Aug 7, 2019 
In this engaging discussion, Andrew Blum, an author and journalist known for his insights into weather technology, explores the evolution of weather forecasting. He reveals how Hurricane Sandy's trajectory was predicted eight days in advance and discusses the crucial role of supercomputers in generating accurate models. Blum emphasizes the limitations of weather apps and why human meteorologists are still vital. With fascinating historical anecdotes, he examines the advancements in meteorology and shares concerns about the privatization of weather data.
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How Models Foresee Major Storms
- Supercomputer models predicted Hurricane Sandy's impact eight days ahead by simulating the atmosphere with physics-based equations.
- The model's early output became clearer each day and correctly forecast Sandy's path to New York.
Forecasts Improve A Day Per Decade
- Meteorologists measure progress as roughly one extra accurate forecast day per decade.
- This trend means a five-day forecast today equals a four-day forecast from ten years ago.
Telegraph Kickstarted Forecasting
- The telegraph let meteorologists hear weather elsewhere faster than the storm could travel, enabling early synoptic maps.
- That communication shift was an early, practical leap toward forecasting at distance.
