Best of 2023: Bent Flyvbjerg | How Big Things Get Done: The Key to Wildly Ambitious Projects
Dec 12, 2023
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Bent Flyvbjerg, an expert in successful big projects, shares key principles for distinguishing successful projects from failed ones. He emphasizes understanding the odds, planning slow and acting fast, and starting with the end goal in mind. Flyvbjerg's insights help navigate the unknowns and achieve wild ambitions.
Reference class forecasting helps set realistic expectations and avoid pitfalls in project planning.
Continuously asking probing questions and seeking deeper understanding helps mitigate the illusion of explanatory depth in project decision-making.
Being a first mover in a project carries risks and challenges that must be carefully weighed against potential benefits.
Deep dives
Importance of Reference Class Forecasting for Project Planning
Reference class forecasting is crucial in project planning, as it helps to set realistic expectations and avoid common pitfalls. By seeking out and analyzing data from similar projects that have already been completed, individuals and teams can establish a more accurate anchor for their own project. This approach allows for a better understanding of the time, resources, and challenges involved in achieving project goals.
The Illusion of Explanatory Depth and Project Decision-Making
The illusion of explanatory depth refers to the tendency for people to overestimate how well they understand a concept or process. In the context of projects, this illusion can lead to poor decision-making and unrealistic expectations. To mitigate this, it is crucial to continuously ask probing questions and seek a deeper understanding of the project's mechanics and objectives. Only by truly grasping the underlying mechanisms can individuals effectively plan and execute projects.
The Disadvantages of First Mover Advantage in Projects
Contrary to popular belief, being a first mover in a project is not always advantageous. The case of digitizing the Danish court system serves as an example of the risks and challenges associated with pioneering a new venture. First movers often face high development costs, uncertain outcomes, and unexpected obstacles. While innovation is necessary, it is essential to weigh the potential benefits against the inherent risks before embarking on a first-of-its-kind project.
The Role of Optimism and Power Bias in Project Failures
Optimism is a major factor in project failures. Many projects go wrong due to misplaced optimism, where people underestimate costs, schedule, and overestimate benefits to make their projects more appealing for funding. Additionally, power bias comes into play, where individuals try to manipulate the system by making their projects look better than they actually are. This bias is conscious and driven by the desire to secure funding and prioritize their projects. Understanding and addressing both cognitive biases and power bias are crucial in project management to prevent disasters.
Fat-Tailed Risk in Project Outcomes
Project outcomes often exhibit fat-tailed risk, meaning that extreme events or outcomes occur more frequently than expected. Fat-tailed risk is prevalent in various project types and renders accurate prediction challenging. While it is difficult to predict project outcomes due to fat-tailed risk, mitigation strategies can still be implemented. This finding applies not only to projects but also to societal issues such as the climate crisis. Modularity is highlighted as a useful approach in managing projects efficiently and swiftly, which holds significance in delivering successful outcomes within defined deadlines.
Bent Flyvbjerg shares his insights on the key principles that distinguish successful big projects from the failed ones. Through his research and experience, he identifies important factors such as understanding the odds, planning slow and acting fast, and starting with the end goal in mind. Join us as we explore how to master the unknowns and achieve wild ambitions with Flyvbjerg's guidance.