The Lawfare Podcast Lawfare Archive: The Wagner Group, One Year After Prigozhin with Vanda Felbab-Brown
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Aug 30, 2025 Vanda Felbab-Brown, an expert on non-state armed actors and Russian mercenaries at the Brookings Institution, joins the discussion about the Wagner Group's evolution after Prigozhin's death. They dive into the recent conflicts in Mali, exploring the group's dual role supporting the junta while facing insurgent attacks. The conversation sheds light on Moscow's tightening grip on private military contractors and the implications for Russian influence in Africa. Felbab-Brown also unpacks the intertwining of organized crime and military operations, creating a complex picture of power dynamics.
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Selective Targeting Fueled Local Alliances
- Africa Corps (formerly Wagner) in Mali prioritized protecting the junta and fighting selected local enemies rather than broad counterterrorism.
- That focus drove them to attack Tuareg groups, which pushed those groups toward alliances with jihadist organizations like JNIM.
Tactical Defeat, Limited Strategic Fallout — Yet
- The late-July ambush inflicted significant tactical losses on Africa Corps but did not immediately produce strategic rupture in Mali-Russia ties.
- Repeated setbacks, however, could cumulatively expose Africa Corps' limits and create larger strategic effects.
License To Brutalize As A Selling Point
- Africa Corps sells a 'license to brutalize' that appeals to autocratic governments because Western partners condition assistance on protecting civilians.
- That brutality drives short-term control but risks counterproductive blowback and deeper insurgent recruitment.