Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker argues that things are getting better today than ever across the world. He uses metrics like laundry to measure human progress. They discuss progress in areas such as war, mortality rates, poverty, and education. They also address the erosion of trust, the impact of globalization and technology on human interaction, and the concerning state of nuclear balance.
Metrics like the decline in time spent doing laundry can be used to measure human progress.
Positive trends in human development include the decline in extreme poverty and improvements in education rates.
Strategic stability, better detection mechanisms, and communication channels are crucial in addressing the nuclear threat.
Deep dives
Measuring Human Progress
The podcast episode explores the concept of human progress, highlighting metrics such as the decline in time spent doing laundry and the decrease in wars and war-related deaths compared to previous decades. The guest, Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker, emphasizes the importance of looking at data rather than headlines to gain an accurate understanding of the state of the world.
The Positive Trends in Human Development
Pinker discusses various positive trends in human development, such as the decline in extreme poverty and illiteracy rates. He also points out that despite ongoing global challenges, indicators like life expectancy, infant mortality, and education rates have shown unprecedented improvement over the past 50 years.
Challenges to Globalization and Nuclear Threats
While acknowledging pushbacks against globalization and rising nuclear concerns, Pinker suggests that the fundamental economic laws favoring globalization and the desire for inexpensive products will continue to exert a force towards greater globalization. He views the nuclear threat as a significant concern, advocating for strategic stability, better detection mechanisms, and channels of communication to prevent misinterpretation or miscommunication.
Artificial Intelligence and Human Behavior
Pinker discusses the two different approaches in AI development: logic-based systems and neural networks. He highlights how neural networks, despite their capabilities, lack certain concepts embedded in human intelligence, leading to limitations and the tendency to fabricate information. Pinker emphasizes the need for regulations, especially regarding AI's influence on children and calls for trustworthy institutions to combat the risks associated with deep fakes and the spread of false information.
The Evolving Role of Media and Cognitive Biases
The conversation delves into the influence and limitations of the media in shaping public perception. Pinker raises concerns about the media's negative bias and its potential to mislead people about the state of the world. He emphasizes the importance of rules of engagement and open debates in fostering accuracy and consensus, even though individuals may still hold diverse beliefs.
War in Ukraine. Global poverty on the rise. Hunger, too. Not to mention a persistent pandemic. It doesn't feel like a particularly good time to be alive. And yet, Harvard psychologist Stephen Pinker argues that things are getting better today than ever across the world, based on the metrics that matter. Like laundry. In 1920, the average American spent 11.5 hours a week doing laundry (and that average American was almost always a woman, dudes just wore dirty clothes). By 2014, the number had dropped to 1.5 hours a week, thanks to what renowned public health scholar Hans Rosling called "greatest invention of the Industrial Revolution”: the washing machine. By freeing people of washing laundry by hand, this new technology allowed parents to devote more time to educating their children, and it allowed women to cultivate a life beyond the washboard. The automation of laundry is just one of many metrics that Pinker, uses to measure human progress. But how does his optimistic view of the state of the world stack up against the brutality of the modern world? Ian Bremmers asks this "relentlessly optimistic macro thinker" to share his view of the world on the GZERO World podcast.