Forward Guidance There Will Be No Recession | Jonny Mathews
8 snips
Sep 5, 2024 Jonny Mathews, a veteran macro trader and partner at Brevin Howard, dives into why he believes a recession isn't looming. He argues that real consumption is set to boost GDP in Q3 while unemployment is expected to stabilize. Mathews shares insights on market opportunities, the dynamics of fixed income, and the importance of household savings. He also touches on trading strategies, particularly the outlook for gold and the impact of AI on productivity, all with a sense of cautious optimism for the future.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Recession Unlikely
- Jonny Matthews believes a US recession is unlikely, citing strong corporate earnings and economic growth.
- He thinks the Fed has tools to prevent a downturn, even with slowing job growth.
Inflation and Growth
- Real growth increased due to falling inflation, even as nominal growth decreased.
- This fall in inflation has fueled a stock market rally.
Household Finances
- Strong household income, wealth, and consumption drive economic growth.
- Savings are still occurring, despite a lower savings rate, with high returns on investments.