Global Commodities: The Trump doctrine: 2025 a pivotal year for Iran with likely minimal impact on production

The original JCPOA agreement is set to expire on October 18, 2025, raising the question of whether it makes sense to restore the JCPOA as it was envisioned in 2015 or to draft a new nuclear agreement, with both the US and Iran signaling willingness to negotiate. Economic transformation in the Gulf requires stability and GCC countries have engaged with Iran, reducing support for aggressive US policies. Rebounding US inflation may also influence policy priorities. We forecast Iranian crude production to remain flat at 3.1 mbd in 2025, unchanged from 2024 levels.

Speaker:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

This podcast was recorded on 21 February 2025.

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