Elevate with Robert Glazer Elevate Classics: Brian Beaulieu's Warning For The Economy
Nov 13, 2025
Brian Beaulieu, CEO of ITR Economics and a seasoned economist with over 40 years of experience, shares bold insights on upcoming economic shifts. He predicts significant changes by 2030, driven by rising debt and demographic transformations. Brian discusses the importance of recognizing historical patterns in forecasts and explains how businesses can thrive even during downturns. He emphasizes strategic investments in bonds and hard assets, while urging leaders to gain market share now to position themselves competitively for the future.
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2030 Supercycle Causes And Global Winners
- A global economic supercycle will push the U.S. into a prolonged decline starting around 2030 driven by debt, demographics, and medical costs.
- China’s negative demographics and rising command control boost India and weaken China’s long-term economic role.
Debt Tipping Point Matters More Than Size
- The tipping point for national debt occurred when U.S. debt exceeded 80% of GDP in April 2009, making recovery far more difficult.
- High debt plus political incentives makes balanced budgets unlikely, raising systemic risk heading into the 2030s.
Inflation Is Stickier Because Of Labor
- Inflation will remain structurally higher due to sticky labor costs and demographic-driven labor shortages.
- The 2030s transition will flip from inflation to deflation later, making long-term bond yields and timing crucial.
