Alex de Waal on the Conflict in Ethiopia and Tigray
Nov 22, 2022
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Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation and an expert on the Horn of Africa, delves into the recent truce between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front. He discusses the tragic use of famine as a weapon, the complex dynamics leading to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's shift from peacemaker to wartime leader, and the urgent need for accountability regarding human rights abuses. De Waal also highlights the intricacies of peace negotiations and the international community's failures in addressing humanitarian crises.
The conflict in Ethiopia underscores the complexities of governance, where peace agreements prioritize military authority over genuine democratic reforms.
Efforts for accountability in the Ethiopian conflict face significant challenges due to a lack of international oversight and political pressures on humanitarian agencies.
Deep dives
The Nature of the Ethiopian Conflict
The conflict in Ethiopia, which erupted two years ago, began as a power struggle between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). Tensions escalated not only due to internal political disputes but also because of historical grievances with neighboring Eritrea, which aimed to eliminate Tigray's leadership. This complex backdrop resulted in a multifaceted war characterized by extreme violence and the use of starvation as a tactic. The government's strategies have included not only military confrontations but also a systematic blockade that has devastated humanitarian access in the region.
Irony of the Nobel Peace Prize
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in brokering peace with Eritrea after a long-standing conflict; however, his subsequent actions led to a brutal internal war that caused immense suffering in Tigray. The irony lies in the contrast between his reputation as a reformer and the severe humanitarian crisis that unfolded under his leadership. Despite the peace efforts with Eritrea, it became clear that these agreements were not aimed at fostering democracy but rather at fortifying military confrontations against Tigray. This betrayal of the peace process highlights the complexities of governance in conflict-prone regions and raises questions about international recognition and accountability.
Peace Agreements and Their Implications
Recent peace agreements aimed to halt hostilities but have been scrutinized for their implications for human rights and accountability. The agreements seemed to favor the Ethiopian federal government by reinstating its authority and demanding the disarmament of Tigrayan forces, raising concerns about their effectiveness and fairness. Furthermore, the absence of Eritrean representation during negotiations is notable, given that Eritrean forces have been deeply involved in the conflict. The agreements have also sparked debates on the future role of the TPLF and the realities of enforcing the stipulated terms, especially concerning humanitarian aid access to the region.
Accountability and Humanitarian Concerns
Efforts to hold parties accountable for war crimes, particularly the weaponization of starvation, have been hampered by a lack of international oversight and a reluctance to confront these human rights violations directly. While reports have indicated widespread abuse and systematic use of starvation, the path to accountability remains murky, with the Ethiopian government showing little interest in investigating these crimes. Humanitarian agencies have faced a dilemma in addressing these issues due to political pressures and operational constraints, often prioritizing aid delivery over confronting the realities of the conflict. This environment creates a cycle wherein those in power manipulate humanitarian assistance, leaving the most vulnerable populations at risk and undermining the legitimacy of peace efforts.
Earlier this month, officials from the government of Ethiopia and representatives from the Tigray People's Liberation Front agreed to halt the two-year conflict that has been rife with accusations of ethnic cleansing, sexual violence, and famine as a weapon of war. To discuss the current state of the conflict and the prospect of peace, Lawfare managing editor Tyler McBrien sat down with Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation and a research professor at Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. A longtime expert on the Horn of Africa, de Waal co-edited the book, “Accountability for Mass Starvation: Testing the Limits of the Law,” which was published in August. They discussed the terms of the recent truce agreements, the irony of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Nobel Peace Prize, and the options for accountability for forced starvation and other crimes committed by both sides.