Tariffs: The Ultimate Stagflationary Shock? | Darius Dale on "Liberation Day," DOGE, Gold, and the Global Debt Refinancing Air Pocket
Apr 2, 2025
auto_awesome
Darius Dale, Founder and CEO of 42 Macro, shares his insights as a market strategist. He discusses his bearish outlook on U.S. stocks and the stagflationary shock from tariffs. Dale highlights how the deflationary forces of DOGE might temporarily benefit Treasurys, but his long-term view on bonds remains pessimistic. He also touches on potential fiscal benefits from Trump-era policies and the significant impact of policy uncertainty on economic growth and labor markets. His analysis emphasizes the need for caution and strategic investment.
Darius Dale expresses bearish sentiments on U.S. stocks, predicting continued market challenges amid significant economic transformations and stagflationary shocks from tariffs.
The podcast discusses parallels between current market downturns and historical events, highlighting that temporary pullbacks often precede recoveries fueled by changes in monetary policy.
Federal debt sustainability concerns and potential tax cuts pose risks for treasury markets, with expectations of increased interest rates due to a faltering bond market demand.
Deep dives
Economic Transformation and Market Positioning
The current market environment is characterized by an ongoing bear market, driven by significant economic transformations. This shift is anticipated as the U.S. economy transitions from reliance on government and high-income spending to a more balanced, private-sector driven economy. Such a foundational change creates market difficulties, as evidenced by the adjustment of growth expectations and increased inflation outlooks. As markets recalibrate, this period of decline is not only expected to lower expectations for sales and earnings but could ultimately position the market for a recovery once these transitions stabilize.
Drawing Historical Comparisons
Market analysts are drawing parallels between the current situation and past market downturns, notably the Q4 2018 and summer 1998 scenarios. These historical analogs serve as indicators of market potential risks, where brief pullbacks typically precede recoveries fueled by shifts in monetary policy. A predicted decline of approximately 20% for the S&P seems likely as the market confronts these resets. Such pullbacks, while painful, are seen as temporary, and the expectation remains that significant future upswings could follow as market conditions improve.
Underestimation of Economic Degradation
There's a prevailing concern that the market is underestimating forthcoming economic degradation, particularly in the labor market. Predictions suggest an impending rise in unemployment due to cuts in federal expenditures driven by the ongoing economic restructuring. This labor market shift may catch investors off-guard, as it isn't fully factored into current market-based expectations. Consequently, a deterioration in economic indicators could compel a reaction from the Federal Reserve, likely leading to monetary easing to mitigate these negative impacts.
Potential Impact of Tariffs and Immigration Policies
Current tariff policies and immigration measures are expected to exert considerable pressure on GDP growth while concurrently driving inflation higher. Tariffs can create stagflationary effects on the economy and may particularly harm sectors reliant on global supply chains. Changes in immigration policy, which has seen a downturn in migrant labor, contribute to the labor supply constraints, further complicating economic stability. As such, stakeholders must be wary of the cascading effects these policies may have on the broader economic landscape in the near future.
Concerns Over Long-term Debt and Bond Pricing
Another critical issue revolves around mounting federal debt and its implications for interest rates and bond markets. Proposals for substantial tax cuts could exacerbate the existing debt levels, leading to potential instability in the treasury markets if investor demand falters. As interest rates have been historically low despite rising debt, there's skepticism concerning the sustainability of these conditions. This scenario raises alarms about the risk of mispricing in the bond market amid increased supply and a potential backlash from international investors withdrawing from U.S. assets.
Darius Dale of 42Macro joins Jack to explain why he’s been bearish on U.S. stocks and expects the rough sledding to continue. Dale believes stagflationary shock from tariffs and deflationary DOGE forces could cause Treasurys to catch a short-term bid, but long-term he is bearish on bonds. On a longer-term time horizon, Dale thinks Trump fiscal forces could be positive for the economy and markets. Recorded on April 1, 2025.