Q&A with Fiona Hill: Where are the weapons Ukraine says it needs to fight Russia?
May 31, 2024
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Dr Fiona Hill, former US national intelligence officer and Putin historian, shares insights on Ukraine conflict, US weapons for Ukraine, and Putin's nuclear brinkmanship. They discuss shifting momentum in the war, succession after Putin, and the implications of letting Ukraine fire Western-made weapons into some Russian territories.
Despite setbacks, Ukraine can withstand Russian advances, Western support signifies a united front against Russian aggression.
Deep dives
Assessment of the War Progress
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine displays fluctuating dynamics as seen in all wars throughout history. Despite setbacks and efforts to push Ukrainians to capitulate by Putin, the message remains clear - Ukraine has the capability to withstand Russia's advances. Putin's current focus lies on gaining momentum by putting pressure on key areas like Kharkiv to potentially draw Ukrainian defense while consolidating his hold on targeted territories like Donetsk, Luhansk, and further regions, setting the stage for ongoing conflict.
Challenges in Acquiring Weapons
The challenge in delivering promised weapons like F16s and Patriot missiles to Ukraine stems from the complex process of procurement and production. Unlike common perception, these advanced military systems are not readily available in storage but require a considerable period for manufacturing and strategic deployment. The delay in providing essential equipment reflects a broader failure to acknowledge the full-scale conflict and strategize procurement effectively, highlighting a critical gap in responding to the evolving needs of war.
Western Support and Strategic Responses
The Western response, particularly the United States and UK, to allow Ukraine to use supplied weapons against Russian targets signifies a significant shift in supporting Ukraine's defense. This move acknowledges Ukraine's right to self-defense under the UN Charter's Article 51, highlighting a united front in countering Russian aggression. The evolving tactical strategies and precautionary measures against potential Russian nuclear weapon usage in Ukraine underscore a complex international landscape and the critical need for coordinated defense strategies.
Future Scenarios and Diplomatic Solutions
As discussions revolve around potential resolutions to the conflict, concerns arise regarding the long-term security of Ukraine and preventing future invasions by Russia. Addressing the possibility of negotiated settlements where Ukraine may not reclaim all occupied territories underscores the necessity for robust international support and diplomatic frameworks. Ensuring Ukraine's equal footing in negotiations with Russia, backed by strong security agreements and military capabilities, emerges as a pivotal factor in achieving lasting peace and stability in the region.
Dr Fiona Hill joins Victoria and Vitaly to answer questions sent in by Ukrainecast listeners. She’s a former US national intelligence officer and a historian who’s written a book about Putin. They tackle topics about how momentum in the war has shifted, who might succeed Putin and what difference it will make letting Ukraine fire Western made weapons into some Russian territories.
Today’s episode is presented by Victoria Derbyshire and Vitaly Shevchenko.
The producers were Arsenii Sokolov, Bella Saltiel and Nick Holland. The technical producer was Frank McWeeny. The series producer is Tim Walklate. The senior news editor is Sam Bonham.
Email Ukrainecast@bbc.co.uk with your questions and comments. You can also send us a message or voice note via WhatsApp, Signal or Telegram to +44 330 1239480
You can join the Ukrainecast discussion on Newscast’s Discord server here: tinyurl.com/ukrainecastdiscord
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