HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on mortgage rates under trade war deadlines
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Jul 9, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst at HousingWire known for his sharp insights on the housing market, dives into how trade wars and tariffs are shaping mortgage rates. He discusses the emotional factors that influence housing choices and challenges common financial myths. The conversation also covers how current trade negotiations with countries like Japan and India could impact the U.S. economy, alongside the crucial role of bond market fluctuations in predicting rate changes. Mohtashami emphasizes the need for consumers to navigate these evolving economic landscapes carefully.
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Fed Focus Amid Trade Deadlines
- The Federal Reserve is focusing on growth inflation in the second half of the year rather than short-term inflation spikes.
- Trade war clarity can influence bond yields and mortgage rates, with a key deadline on August 1st to watch.
Bond Market Reacts to Trade Clarity
- The bond market reacts poorly to lack of clarity in trade negotiations, causing yields to tick up.
- A calm market and better spreads show improved resilience compared to earlier in the year.
Monitor Bonds and Trade Deals
- Mortgage rates will likely hover near current levels until economic data weakens or significant trade deals are made.
- Track bond yields and trade deal progress closely as these factors influence mortgage rate trends.