HousingWire Daily Inflation and how the trade war is affecting mortgage rates
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Sep 11, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a leading analyst known for his deep insights into housing markets, joins the discussion to unpack how tariffs and trade wars impact mortgage rates. He highlights the connection between inflation and job statistics, illustrating how economic pressures shape the housing landscape. Mohtashami also dives into the Federal Reserve's response to rising inflation, exploring the paradox of strong labor markets against fluctuating mortgage rates. His analysis reveals the intricate balance between economic policies and housing demands.
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Tariffs Lowered Yields And Pressured Fed
- Logan Mohtashami argues tariffs have lowered bond yields and pressured the Fed's stance on rates.
- He concludes mortgage rates would be slightly higher today without tariffs because the Fed would remain more restrictive.
Bond Yields Moved Ahead Of Fed Policy
- Mohtashami describes 2023–24 dynamics where bond yields moved ahead of Fed policy and forced rate decisions.
- He highlights that yields rising to 5% produced mortgage rates near 8%, prompting Fed hesitation.
‘Godzilla’ Tariffs Created Economic Chaos
- In 2025 Mohtashami says 'Godzilla' tariffs created chaos that depressed yields and growth expectations.
- He ties tariff-driven uncertainty to a lower 10-year yielding around 3.87% earlier in the year.