Allied Scale: Rush Doshi on US-China Net Assessment
Apr 26, 2025
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Rush Doshi, author of 'The Long Game' and former Biden NSC Deputy Senior Director for China and Taiwan, dives into the intricate dynamics of U.S.-China relations. He emphasizes the strategic importance of allied partnerships in countering China's rise. The discussion highlights China's economic challenges amidst its technological strengths, demographic shifts, and political stability risks. Furthermore, Doshi critiques past U.S. foreign policy approaches, advocating for a cooperative stance to enhance global alliances and ensure a balanced power dynamic.
The U.S. must recognize its unique geographical advantages while acknowledging China's rapid growth in manufacturing and technology as a formidable challenge.
Evolving perceptions of U.S. and China impact strategic planning, highlighting the need for a nuanced understanding of both countries' strengths and weaknesses.
The strategy of 'allied scale' emphasizes the collaborative power of the U.S. and its allies to counterbalance China's industrial and technological advancements.
Deep dives
Competitor Scale: An Overview
The discussion highlights the unique challenge posed by China as a competitor to the United States, emphasizing China's substantial size and scale advantages. The United States benefits from its geographical barriers, abundant resources, and dominant position in global capital markets, which are significant assets that contribute to its strategic edge. However, these advantages may not be enough to outweigh China's rapid growth in manufacturing and technological capabilities. The conversation suggests that an accurate net assessment of both countries is essential for the U.S. to formulate a coherent and effective strategy moving forward.
Shifts in Perception and Strategy
The podcast delves into the fluctuating perceptions of the U.S. and China over recent years, illustrating how these views impact strategic planning. For instance, the narrative around America's decline shifted dramatically, spurred by events like the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while China struggled with its zero-COVID policy. This evolving zeitgeist underscores the challenges of forming a consistent strategy amid varying assessments. The key takeaway is the importance of maintaining a nuanced understanding of both nations' strengths and weaknesses to develop effective strategies for competition.
The Critical Role of Scale
Scale is identified as a pivotal factor in evaluating the geopolitical dynamics between the U.S. and China. The podcast explains how China's ability to scale its capabilities significantly impacts competition, comparing its potential manufacturing output to historical precedents such as Great Britain's decline. The U.S. previously held dominant industrial power during the 20th century, but China is rapidly catching up, evidenced by statistics on global manufacturing shares. Understanding this scale and the potential for future growth is essential for acknowledging the evolving landscape of international relations.
China's Challenges and Opportunities
Despite China's advantages, the podcast acknowledges that it faces numerous internal challenges, including economic issues and demographic changes. Issues like high levels of debt and an aging population could impact China's long-term strategic capabilities. However, it's also suggested that China is preparing for these challenges by investing in technology and optimizing its manufacturing capabilities. This dual focus on addressing vulnerabilities while seeking to enhance strengths complicates any assumptions about China's trajectory in the coming decades.
Allied Scale: The Path Forward
The podcast advocates for a strategy termed 'allied scale' as a countermeasure to China's rising influence, emphasizing the potential collaborative power of the U.S. and its allies. A framework for strengthening partnerships and pooling resources, capabilities, and innovations is proposed as a means of counterbalancing China's industrial and technological advancements. By focusing on building collective capacity rather than relying solely on unilateral actions, the U.S. can enhance its global standing. This approach underscores the urgency of concerted efforts to ensure that America and its allies remain competitive on the world stage.
Rush Doshi (CFR, Biden NSC, author of the excellent The Long Game) and I run through the US-China tale of the tape. The future of America's relationship with its allies may be the key hinge variable for whether this century turns out to be China's to define. Do give this one a listen. Especially if you're JD Vance!
See Rush's Foreign Affairs article with Kurt Campbell here: https://archive.is/ZSTKP
Some Japanese outtro music to give the allies some love:
Karenai by Bonbero: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFJcIOMsOaU&ab_channel=Bonbero
What's Popping by JP THE WAVY and friends: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1LOXU_hBNo&ab_channel=JPTHEWAVY
