On The Market

US Economic Outlook Significantly Stronger Than You’d Think w/Top Forecaster Joe Brusuelas

Sep 19, 2024

Joe Brusuelas, a top forecaster recognized by Bloomberg as the 2023 Best Rate Forecaster, shares his insights on the buoyant state of the US economy. He argues that, contrary to media narratives, inflation is under control, and economic growth is strong and resilient. Brusuelas discusses the 'secret sauce' behind this success and how the US is outperforming global rivals like China. He also predicts significant Fed rate cuts in 2025 and highlights potential risks from geopolitical tensions and corporate debt.

35:10

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Episode guests

Joe Brusuelas

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

The U.S. economy shows stronger-than-expected growth driven by effective policies, low inflation, and significant capital inflow enhancing global competitiveness.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, pose risks to global supply chains, but U.S. energy independence helps mitigate immediate economic impacts.

Deep dives

Positive Economic Recovery Indicators

The U.S. economy is showing signs of a solid recovery as it navigates through the post-pandemic landscape. With a growth rate hovering around 3.1% mid-year, the economy appears to have rebounded thanks to effective fiscal and monetary policies implemented during the pandemic. Notably, underlying inflation remains low at approximately 2.5%, outperforming other G7 nations. A remarkable increase in capital inflow, from 18% pre-pandemic to over 30% recently, highlights the U.S.’s enhanced global competitiveness driven by strategic industrial policies.

Intro

2min

Navigating the U.S. Economic Landscape

7min

Promotional Break for Real Estate Tools and Services

1min

China's Economic Shifts and Global Impact

13min

Optimistic Predictions for the U.S. Economy Amid Structural Changes

5min

Commercial Real Estate Adjustments

4min

Optimism for the American Economy and Real Estate Investing Resources

2min

The US economy isn’t doing as well as you think—it’s doing even better. While mainstream media outlets and grocery prices may make you feel that the US economy is struggling, the data points to something different. Inflation is getting under control, the Fed is about to lower rates, recession risks could be shrinking, and a long-term growth trend is emerging. The American economy is leading what Joe Brusuelas calls the “global recovery.”

Named 2023 “Best Rate Forecaster” by Bloomberg, Joe has an unmatched view of the economy at a macro and microeconomic level. Today, we’re talking to Joe about the state of the US economy and why it’s outperforming global players like China. Joe shares the “secret sauce” that is helping the US take center stage in global economic growth, which could keep us on course to see continued economic success for years to come.

But, with China’s economy showing cracks, the Middle East conflict getting more tense by the day, and the risk of recession still top of mind, what’s next for the US economy? Joe gives his economic outlook and shares the most significant risks the US economy could face, plus why he sees a BIG Fed rate cut coming in 2025.

In This Episode We Cover

The state of the US economy and why we’re seeing such unmatched economic growth

The “secret sauce” that makes the American economy particularly efficient

China’s growing economic troubles and whether it could bleed into the US economy

Fed rate cut predictions and why we may see a BIG drop in rates by this time next year

Joe’s US economic forecast and the regions of the US real estate investors MUST watch

Commercial real estate risks and whether we should still be worried about “the wall” of maturing debt

And So Much More!

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