On The Market
US Economic Outlook Significantly Stronger Than You’d Think w/Top Forecaster Joe Brusuelas
Sep 19, 2024
Joe Brusuelas, a top forecaster recognized by Bloomberg as the 2023 Best Rate Forecaster, shares his insights on the buoyant state of the US economy. He argues that, contrary to media narratives, inflation is under control, and economic growth is strong and resilient. Brusuelas discusses the 'secret sauce' behind this success and how the US is outperforming global rivals like China. He also predicts significant Fed rate cuts in 2025 and highlights potential risks from geopolitical tensions and corporate debt.
35:10
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Quick takeaways
- The U.S. economy shows stronger-than-expected growth driven by effective policies, low inflation, and significant capital inflow enhancing global competitiveness.
- Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, pose risks to global supply chains, but U.S. energy independence helps mitigate immediate economic impacts.
Deep dives
Positive Economic Recovery Indicators
The U.S. economy is showing signs of a solid recovery as it navigates through the post-pandemic landscape. With a growth rate hovering around 3.1% mid-year, the economy appears to have rebounded thanks to effective fiscal and monetary policies implemented during the pandemic. Notably, underlying inflation remains low at approximately 2.5%, outperforming other G7 nations. A remarkable increase in capital inflow, from 18% pre-pandemic to over 30% recently, highlights the U.S.’s enhanced global competitiveness driven by strategic industrial policies.
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