Wharton Moneyball The Impact of Analytics on Tennis Champions | Data & College Sports
Aug 27, 2025
Jeff Sackmann, founder of Tennis Abstract and expert in tennis analytics, joins the conversation with insights into the power of data in sports. He discusses his predictive models for the U.S. Open and highlights the impressive performances of rising stars like Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. Jeff explains how tennis analytics is revolutionizing strategies, including serve variability and real-time match adjustments. The talk also touches on trends in golf and MLB, intertwining the impact of statistics across various sports.
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Top-Two Dominance In Men's Tennis
- Jeff Sackmann's ELO forecast gave Jannik Sinner a 45% and Carlos Alcaraz a 35% U.S. Open win probability before play began.
- That implies an 80% combined chance for the top two, showing extreme concentration at the top of men's tennis.
Dominance Means Beating A Stronger Field
- Jeff argues the tennis field rarely weakens because training and talent pools steadily improve over decades.
- Thus a dominant player today is likely ahead of an even stronger pack than past eras faced.
Tennis Has Strong Ladder Stratification
- ELO rating gaps compress differently down the rankings, so a top-5 gap is much larger relative to lower slots.
- Jeff shows a 240-point gap from #1 to #5 places #5 near the top 50 boundary, highlighting steep ladder effects.