Yevgeny Prigozhin's alleged death and its impact on the future of the Wagner Group and Russia's foreign policy. Investigation into a plane crash believed to be orchestrated by the Kremlin. The uncertainty and potential fragmentation within the Wagner network under new leadership. The importance of loyalty dynamics and trust among Wagner troops. Implications of a leadership transition for Western policymakers and African regional actors.
The alleged assassination of Prigosian raises questions about the future of the Wagner Group and how Putin will manage its operational structure and personnel, while advancing Russia's foreign policy.
The death of Prigosian raises concerns about the impact on the war in Ukraine and highlights the need for the West to monitor and expose gaps in Wagner's narrative and explore alternative partnerships in Africa to address security challenges.
Deep dives
The Alleged Death of Wagner Group Head Prigosian
A jet crash in Russia between Moscow and St. Petersburg is believed to have resulted in the deaths of Evgeny Prigosian and Dimitri Utkin, leaders of the Wagner Group. Reports from Wagner-linked social media and Russian state media suggest that both leaders were on board, although independent confirmation is lacking. US intelligence assessments suggest that the crash was an intentional assassination, caused by an explosion on board. The Russian government has pledged to conduct a full investigation, but skepticism remains. The future of the Wagner Group and its operational structure, as well as potential replacements for Prigosian, are topics of interest.
Prigosian's Movement between Russia and Belarus
Despite being exiled to Belarus, Prigosian has made multiple trips back to Russia, including meetings with Putin and appearances at the Russia-Africa summit. The details of his agreement with Putin remain unknown, but tensions between the two persisted. The alleged assassination of Prigosian can be seen as the culmination of consequences following his mutiny. The question now arises about the future of the Wagner Group and how Putin will manage its operational structure and personnel, while advancing Russia's foreign policy.
Implications and Future of the Wagner Group
The death of Prigosian raises questions about the impact on the war in Ukraine, as Wagner had already scaled back its operations there. The operational infrastructure of the Wagner Group is expected to remain intact, with the Kremlin appointing new leadership to ensure continuity. Loyalty from mid-level leaders and personnel is crucial during this transition. Wagner's success has influenced the proliferation of private military companies (PMCs) in Russia and the broader use of PMCs by malign actors. Russia is likely to continue using PMCs, but with a more diversified approach. The future will see a restructuring of Wagner, potentially under different branding, while maintaining continuity in operations. The West has an opportunity to monitor and expose gaps in Wagner's narrative and explore alternative partnerships in Africa to address security challenges.
CSIS’s Catrina Doxsee joins the podcast to discuss the alleged death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and its impact on the future of the Wagner Group and Russia's foreign policy.
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