Fixed Income Roundtable with the UBS Chief Investment Office
Sep 19, 2023
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UBS On-Air presents a fixed income roundtable featuring Leslie Falconio, Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo, Alina Golant, and Kathleen McNamara. The podcast covers topics such as the outlook for the fourth quarter, investment grade corporates, the preferred sector, high yield sector analysis, and risks in fixed income.
Investment-grade corporates in the financial sector offer solid fundamentals and attractive valuations.
A barbell strategy, combining short-term liquidity bonds and longer-dated municipals, is recommended for the municipal market.
Deep dives
Outlook for the Fourth Quarter
The podcast discusses the outlook for the fourth quarter, particularly focusing on the interest rate market. While the forecast suggests that yields will trend lower by year-end, there may be increased volatility due to the upcoming Fed meeting and fading fiscal stimulus. The speakers anticipate a soft landing for the economy with growth slowing down, but not a recession. The fixed income team emphasizes the appeal of investment-grade corporates, particularly in the financial sector, which has solid fundamentals and attractive valuations.
Municipal Market and Opportunities
The discussion shifts to the municipal market, highlighting its positive performance so far in 2023. Factors such as tight new issue supply, sound credit fundamentals, and increased demand from individual investors have contributed to the gains. However, going into the fall, the technical backdrop is expected to weaken with net supply turning positive, potentially leading to downward price pressure and higher yields in the short term. The speakers suggest a barbell strategy, favoring short-term liquidity bonds along with longer-dated municipals to lock in elevated tax-exempt yields.
Preferred Securities and Tailwinds
The conversation turns to preferred securities, which have faced some headwinds but still demonstrate attractive valuation and supportive interest rate outlook. Resilient fundamentals in the banking sector and favorable technical factors, including redemptions, also contribute to the positive outlook. The speakers anticipate solid performance with the potential for impressive returns, especially with declining treasury rates. They recommend a focus on high-quality issuer preferreds and a barbell strategy with short-term bonds for liquidity and longer-dated bonds for potential price appreciation.
Join the CIO fixed income team every other month for a discussion around the drivers behind asset class trends and performance, positioning and a near-term outlook. Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy, moderates a panel which includes insights from Senior Fixed Income Strategists Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo and Alina Golant, along with Senior Municipal Strategist, Kathleen McNamara.
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