Rationally Speaking Podcast Rationally Speaking #208 - Annie Duke on "Thinking in bets"
May 13, 2018
Annie Duke, former pro poker player and author of 'Thinking in Bets,' discusses the role of luck in decision-making, the misconception of betting involving only money, the tendency to avoid uncertainty, the complexity of decision-making under uncertainty, thinking in bets to overcome fear, and the cognitive impact of outcomes on decision-making.
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Thinking in Bets
- Thinking in bets means embracing uncertainty and viewing decisions as probabilistic investments.
- We bet our resources on a future outcome, acknowledging no guarantee.
The Restaurant Bet
- Ordering food is a simple bet against alternative versions of yourself.
- Choosing chicken over fish means betting against the "fish-eating self".
Confidence vs. Certainty
- Expressing uncertainty can convey more confidence than expressing certainty, as it signals thoughtfulness.
- However, people conflate confidence with certainty, partly due to identity preservation.