Kiwibank chief economist discusses rebound in confidence and hope for the summer despite interest rate hikes. Analysis of state of the economy, housing market and impact on mortgage holders. Predicted decline in housing market this year with gradual recovery in 2023. Comparison of mortgage practices and economic conditions between New Zealand and the United States. Regional economic performance in New Zealand and influence of housing market.
25:57
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
Consumer spending has shifted towards necessities and away from non-essential items due to inflation and the cost of living crisis, but there is hope for improvement next year with upcoming elections.
The influx of migrants has increased demand for housing and infrastructure, exacerbating the shortage in supply and leading to rising prices; addressing this issue requires infrastructure development, unlocking land for construction, and leveraging modern technologies like prefabricated homes.
Deep dives
Consumer Spending Habits Reflect Caution
Consumer spending habits have shifted with a focus on necessities rather than big-ticket items. While spending on groceries has increased, spending on other non-essential items has decreased. This cautious approach is driven by inflation and the cost of living crisis. However, there is a hint of optimism as people anticipate improvement next year, particularly with the upcoming elections. The influx of migrants into the country has added to the demand for housing and other goods, putting pressure on the housing market. The supply side issues in housing present a challenge as infrastructure and housing shortage persist.
The Impact of Migration on the Housing Market
The surge in migration has increased demand for housing and other services. While the full force of the migrant intake has not been realized yet, the pressure on the housing market is evident. The influx of people necessitates the construction of more homes and infrastructure, but the current supply falls short. The imbalance between supply and demand is contributing to rising housing prices and rents. To address this issue, a focus on infrastructure development, unlocking land for construction, and leveraging modern technologies like prefabricated homes could help alleviate the shortage.
Outlook on Interest Rates and Impact on Mortgages
The Reserve Bank has suspended further interest rate hikes for now, with a view to breaking the back of inflation. However, the impact of previous rate hikes has already resulted in a substantial slowdown and recessionary conditions in the economy. As mortgage rates are set to roll off into higher interest rates, there is anticipation that the Reserve Bank may cut interest rates next year to stimulate the economy. This adjustment could potentially lead to mortgage rates falling and provide some relief to households who have been impacted by rising mortgage costs. Small businesses are also feeling cautious due to the economic conditions.
Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr tells Bernard Hickey why there are early signs of a rebound in confidence and hope for the summer to come, and into next year, despite the interest rate hikes.