Excess Returns The Two Tailed Market Risk | Brent Kochuba on What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
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Nov 16, 2025 Brent Kachuba, founder of SpotGamma, dives into the intricate world of options flows and their impact on market movements. He discusses how daily market shifts are increasingly influenced by options trading and the current volatility landscape. The conversation touches on the disconnect between high market levels and underlying investor unease, parallels to the dot-com era, and how pivotal events like NVIDIA's earnings could sway market sentiment. Brent also explains concepts like negative gamma and the dynamics of monthly options expirations, shedding light on the current market stress.
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Market Feels Fragile Near Highs
- The market feels fragile despite being only a few percent from all-time highs.
- Option flows explain some moves but not the recent broad, fundamental unease.
Biotech Turned Crypto Treasury Rally
- Brent noted a tiny biotech converted to a crypto treasury and rallied 500% in a day.
- He used it to illustrate speculative excess reminiscent of the dot-com era.
NVIDIA Is The Market’s Narrative Hinge
- NVIDIA earnings are the key short-term narrative hinge for the AI-driven market.
- The market prices that event as pivotal because many companies and capex depend on NVIDIA's outlook.