Why Roman Interest Rates Collapsed After Augustus Won | Fertility Economics Questions Answered | Friedman & Reagan on the Gold Standard – ep 304

Nov 29, 2025

52:39

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Episode notes

Gene responds to thoughtful listener feedback on record-low fertility rates and explores why childcare, IVF, and returning to work for fortysomething mothers can be so economically challenging. He then travels back to ancient Rome to unpack a curious moment after Augustus’s victory over Antony and Cleopatra, when treasure flooded into Rome, interest rates plummeted, and land values soared—and explains how this fits neatly into modern monetary economics. Finally, Gene revisits remarkable exchanges between Milton Friedman, Alan Greenspan, and Ronald Reagan that shed fresh light on the perennial debate over the gold standard.

Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com.

Timestamps

Introduction (0:00)
Childcare Costs and Staffing Ratios (5:15)
IVF Costs and Penalties for Women Returning to Work (9:52)
Rise of Singleton Households and Economics of Smaller Populations (17:32)
Economic Impact of Ancient Rome’s Influx of Gold and Treasure (22:56)
Milton Friedman and the Gold Standard (42:01)

Takeaways

Childcare costs are structurally high due to labour intensity, mandated staff–child ratios, and qualification requirements.
The “motherhood penalty” is real and appears driven partly by human capital loss during career breaks and partly by occupational choices for flexibility.
Augustus’s influx of treasure into Rome increased real money balances, pushing interest rates from ~12% to ~4% and boosting land prices—an excellent real-world example of short-run monetary non-neutrality.
Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan both advised Ronald Reagan NOT to pursue a gold standard, arguing fiscal discipline and controlled monetary growth matter more than metal backing.